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The ASX200 enjoyed another solid week, finishing up +0.8% after retesting its all-time high on Thursday following market-friendly US inflation data on Wednesday night AEST. This week was a huge win for the Doves, with major economic data in both the US and Australia pointing towards an economic slowdown and inflation that might not be as sticky as many feared throughout April
The ASX pulled back from recent highs today on some profit-taking after a solid week. Better news on the inflation and interest rate front propelled equities to all-time highs in the US & UK, and a whisker below all-time highs locally, as the narrative around a soft landing, or no landing at all, continues to gain traction. Interest rate sensitive sectors have had a great week, and fading the moves that played out in April has certainly been the trade to back, while it looks like BHO may walk away from a deal to buy Anglo at this point, underpinning a relief rally in our biggest local index weight. All in all, investors made money this week, we’ll take it, and as always, concentrate on what could come next! Manly vs Broncos tonight – Go the Mighty Sea Eagles!
Recent years have witnessed some huge moves in cyclical commodities such as coal, lithium, and copper. Uranium is another one that can be added to the list, although it’s a touch less tangible in Australia. We obviously cannot touch the stuff, and there is no nuclear power on our shores. US President Joe Biden has just signed the bill to ban the import of Russian-sourced enriched uranium into the US. We remain very bullish on the outlook for uranium in the next few years, seeing no hurdles to the upside, although Donald Trump may reverse this particular bill if he wins in November’s US election. We could easily see uranium another 50% higher in the coming years.
A very bullish session for the ASX today, pushing the market to within 10 points of its all-time high. A more benign inflation read in the US overnight, with CPI printing lower month-on-month had the bulls up and about early, before softer employment data locally saw interest rate traders ramp up their bets for an RBA rate cut this side of Christmas – all in all, a great day for risk assets.
We are amending our property exposure in the Income Portfolio
US short-term bond yields tested multi-week lows overnight following the cooling US CPI, but they are still nowhere near as dovish as they were back in January/February. Last night’s numbers were undoubtedly encouraging, but more proof will be required for credit markets and, most importantly, the Fed to conclude that inflation’s contained. Bond markets are often thought to be smarter than equities, as they are significantly larger, and at the moment, they are saying stocks are getting a touch overly optimistic. We believe stocks will ultimately be proved correct, but we must remain cognisant that any deterioration in the interest rate picture could easily see stocks pull back to their April lows.
The ASX was on the front foot early today before paring gains as the session wore on in the post-budget trade. UBS thinks the budget is ultimately good for stocks given its pro-growth even though that could mean interest rates remain higher for longer. The ASX200 finished up 26pts, though this was ~30pts from the intraday high, still only 2% from the all-time high.
Overnight, Jim Chalmers delivered his pre-election budget, and not surprisingly, he “splashed the cash.” The government has committed to increasing net spending by over $24bn over the next four years; the Treasurer believes his budget will cut inflation by 0.5% next FY, but financial markets were not convinced. The deficit was forecast to be around $18bn in December; already, 6-months later, the figures jumped by a whopping +55%, while the forecasted 2025 deficit is more than double economists’ previous estimates – why bother!
The ASX drifted back today ahead of the Federal Budget due for release tonight, some headlines already coming through suggesting a ~$9b surplus will be announced alongside some support for critical minerals including nickel and copper. We suspect some of the weakness today was a risk-off move ahead of US inflation data on Wednesday though stocks in Asia were fairly quiet while US Futures were unchanged during our time zone.
Overnight, we heard that the BHP v Anglo-American story had entered and finished Chapter II, and the saga could potentially have taken its final twist:
BHP increased its bid for Anglo-American (AAL LN), which would have given AAL shareholders 16.6% of the new group, up from 14.8%.
According to BHP, the revised bid of 0.8132 BHP shares, up from 0.7097, for each AAL share values the London-based miner at £27.53 – a 14.6% increase to bid 1.
The second more attractive bid by BHP was rejected by the AAL board overnight.
The UK miner now needs to deliver a compelling vision of how it can survive and flourish independently without merging with the “Big Australian.” The synergies were undoubtedly there, although it wasn’t the cleanest deal in town, but AAL don’t appear keen to tango. The deal was offered to the AAL board last week and formally rejected overnight.
