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When inflation rises it takes interest rates along for the ride which flows down to multiple contraction / a drop in valuations i.e. people are prepared to pay less for a company’s potential growth / yield because they can suddenly get an improving return on their risk free funds at the bank i.e. a major tailwind for stocks has become a headwind
The US literally pumped money / stimulus into their economy after the GFC but the amount pales into insignificance compared to their extreme efforts post-COVID, never in history has the global economy experienced such phenomenal economic stimulus effectively providing “free money” which has fuelled massive M&A and buyback activity in equities
MM believes that company buybacks are close to a point of inflection which should remove an enormous tailwind for stock indices i.e. one of the largest net buyers of stocks may retreat
A200
MM remains mildly bullish Australian equities looking for 4-6% further upside i.e. not a big call but we do anticipate reducing our risk if such a move unfolds
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COPX US
MM is looking for around 10% upside in copper in the coming months but we must remain mindful of how quickly some moves unfolded in 2020/21, in both directions!
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MM believes the rise in bond yields will peak early this year
QQQ US
MM is becoming more cautious this year than last
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Sentiment suggests the market has more short term upside

Latest Reports

Morning report

ETF Friday: Is the Oil Selloff Creating a Buying Opportunity in Energy ETFs?

The ASX200 retreated by -0.7% on Thursday, yet the number of winners and losers was evenly matched. As we’ve touched on a few times this week, the market is going through a “risk-off” period with investors rotating into some of the more defensive and often underperforming names of FY26. If MM is correct and the $A finds support ~69c, the current aggressive profit-taking in the miners could be approaching its conclusion, perhaps in time for the start of FY27.

Afternoon report

The Match Out: ASX falls as resources rout continues, JDO plunges on guidance downgrade

The ASX struggled to gain any traction today, with another sharp selloff across the resources complex outweighing a strong rotation into defensive sectors. While the headline index finished lower, the move masked a notable improvement in market breadth, with more than half of ASX 200 stocks closing in positive territory as investors continued shifting away from the commodity trade and back towards Healthcare, Consumer Staples, Discretionary and Real Estate.

The Match Out Market Matters 2
Morning report

What Matters Today: Is It Time to Forgive CSL (ASX: CSL) and Reconsider the Healthcare Sector?

The ASX 200 rebounded 0.2% on Wednesday as ASX software names benefited from rotation out of Asian chipmakers, on what felt like a first for 2026, with gains the most aggressive where losses have been the steepest: WiseTech Global (+14%) and Xero (+9%). The toughest call at the moment is whether we are seeing some meaningful reversion, or simply ongoing EOFY book squaring.

Afternoon report

The Match Out: ASX snaps four-day skid as mixed CPI keeps RBA’s August hike alive

The local market broke a four-day losing streak today, with the ASX 200 grinding higher as investors weighed a mixed May inflation print. Headline CPI cooled to 4% — softer than the 4.3% expected, largely on falling fuel prices — but the RBA's preferred trimmed mean measure accelerated to 3.6%, above forecasts, keeping underlying inflation pressures alive. The Aussie dollar slumped to an 11-week low before paring losses, as markets turn to Thursday's jobs report and an evening speech from RBA deputy governor Andrew Hauser for the next steer on policy.

The Match Out Market Matters 2
Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: SpaceX sell-off reverberates around the World

The ASX200 lost early gains on Tuesday, as tech selling cascaded around the world following SpaceX’s ~16% fall in US trade. Yesterday's sell-off in the semiconductor stocks, some of the biggest beneficiaries of the AI boom, gathered momentum throughout the day, and saw the Korean Kospi close down 10%, with SK Hynix Inc. and Samsung Electronics Co. both sliding more than 12%.

Afternoon report

The Match Out: Banks hold firm as Materials & Tech weigh on the ASX

The ASX 200 finished lower today, with choppy trade through, in positive territory briefly before selling in technology, resources and small caps outweighed strength in the major banks and defensive sectors. Resilience in the Big Four provided some cushion, but market breadth was notably weak with around two-thirds of stocks finishing in the red. Investors continued to digest developments around US-Iran peace negotiations, while positioning ahead of tomorrow's Australian inflation data and ongoing scrutiny of the AI trade.

The Match Out Market Matters 2
Morning report

What Matters Today: Reviewing the 5 new stocks to enter the ASX200

The ASX 200 slipped 0.1% on Monday, not a bad performance considering US S&P 500 futures were trading lower, WiseTech (ASX: WTC) was hammered -18% following reports that police were investigating its chair, Richard White, and BHP Group (ASX: BH) fell another ~$1. Fortunately, the banks bucked the trend with all of the “Big Four” closing higher, a potential theme over the coming months, which we touched on in this week's Macro Monday Report.

Afternoon report

The Match Out: ASX holds despite US-Iran wobbles, WTC tumbles on AFP probe

The ASX 200 finished mildly lower, recovering from early weakness to close near breakeven as strength in the banks and consumer discretionary stocks offset a sharp selloff in technology. Markets spent much of the session digesting conflicting headlines surrounding US-Iran negotiations, with oil prices reversing an early rally as hopes for further diplomatic progress emerged out of the Lake Lucerne Summit this morning.

The Match Out Market Matters 2
Morning report

Macro Monday: Rotation continues as a hawkish Fed weighs on stocks

The Fed may have left interest rates unchanged last week, but its accompanying commentary caught the market napping. Incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting delivered a clear message: inflation remains the enemy, rate cuts are not guaranteed, and investors should continue to expect a data-dependent Fed.

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