When inflation rises it takes interest rates along for the ride which flows down to multiple contraction / a drop in valuations i.e. people are prepared to pay less for a company’s potential growth / yield because they can suddenly get an improving return on their risk free funds at the bank i.e. a major tailwind for stocks has become a headwind
The US literally pumped money / stimulus into their economy after the GFC but the amount pales into insignificance compared to their extreme efforts post-COVID, never in history has the global economy experienced such phenomenal economic stimulus effectively providing “free money” which has fuelled massive M&A and buyback activity in equities
MM believes that company buybacks are close to a point of inflection which should remove an enormous tailwind for stock indices i.e. one of the largest net buyers of stocks may retreat
MM remains mildly bullish Australian equities looking for 4-6% further upside i.e. not a big call but we do anticipate reducing our risk if such a move unfolds
MM is looking for around 10% upside in copper in the coming months but we must remain mindful of how quickly some moves unfolded in 2020/21, in both directions!
The ASX was lower today with a sharp sell-off across gold, copper and lithium stocks overwhelming solid gains in energy, utilities and communications. The index recovered from its session low but still ended the week marginally lower as renewed fighting in the Middle East, rising oil prices and the prospect of higher-for-longer interest rates weighed on risk appetite.
July has seen a tale of two halves for ETF flows: The month began with a sharp risk-off rotation as investors cut exposure to technology and AI, with the Nasdaq tracking QQQ losing ~US$11.5bn over four consecutive sessions, the S&P 500 tracking IVV shedding ~US$1.7bn, and software ETFs also suffering heavy redemptions. The standout exception was semiconductors, where SOXX attracted a record US$3.4bn in the week to 10 July, while US-listed ETFs remain on track for a record US$2tn of inflows in 2026.
The ASX 200 finished essentially flat today, with strength across financials, communications and consumer discretionary offset by sharp weakness in materials and energy. The market recovered from earlier losses but struggled to make headway as BHP reversed much of Wednesday’s rally and oil-exposed names continued to give back recent gains.
The ASX ground higher today, with strength in the heavyweight miners offsetting weakness across energy, consumer staples and communications. It was the first session in over five where stocks opened firm, yet selling ticked up over the course of the day, with the market finishing well off it’s early peak. While we’re bullish on the market, investors are still in this buy weakness, sell strength mentality while the Middle East situation remains unresolved – lets hope we can get back to focussing on earnings at some point.
The ASX 200 has now rallied from early losses to close near its highs for five consecutive sessions, after recovering an early 50-point deficit on Tuesday to end the session flat. The miners bounced strongly to close higher despite crude oil trading ~5% higher, with Evolution Mining (+3.2%), South32 (+2%), Regis Resources (+2%), Sandfire (+1.5%), and BHP Group (+0.6%) catching our eye as a slow but steady bid tone surfaced across the gold and copper names. These miners were helped by a recovery in gold (+0.5%) and copper (+1.5%) during our trading session as the $US edged lower ahead of the important US CPI inflation data.
Another session where stocks were hit early before a spirited fightback saw the index little changed, recovering ~50pts from the session low. It certainly seems the market wants to go up; it just can’t get any clear air out of the Middle East. The ASX 200 finished virtually unchanged on Tuesday as weakness in the banks, consumer staples and property stocks was offset by strong gains across energy and materials.
The ASX 200 has now rallied from early losses to close near its highs for four straight sessions, a classic hallmark of a market with strong underlying buying support. The banks helped the market close higher on Monday, despite 60% of the main board closing lower, but overall it was a fairly lacklustre session considering the fresh US-Iran fighting, which sent US stock and bond futures lower as oil pushed back towards US$80/barrel. Again, we ignored sharp losses across the semiconductor space in Asia, but that’s no major surprise, given the dearth of major AI stocks on the ASX. Unfortunately, news out of the Middle East continued to deteriorate overnight:
The ASX eked out small gains to kick off the week despite oil spiking higher on fresh US-Iran strikes and conflicting statements from each side on whether the Strait of Hormuz remains open to shipping. Six of 11 sectors finished in the red, with most support at the index level coming from the banks, while Telstra (TLS) +1.6% bounced back after last weeks outage.
Last week we saw renewed fighting in the Middle East, with Iran declaring the Strait of Hormuz closed "until further notice" on Saturday, stating no vessels would be permitted to pass until foreign interference ends. Last week, Crude oil spiked around 8% following the escalation in tensions, although it did surrender some of the gains as the week wore on. However, despite the geopolitical uncertainty, global equities shrugged off the fighting, with the Dow making new all-time highs and the MSCI World Index closing less than 0.5% below its same milestone.
Check your email for an email from [email protected]
Subject: Your OTP for Account Access
This email will have a code you can use as your One Time Password for instant access
Verication email sent.
Check your email for an email from [email protected]
Subject: Your OTP for Account Access
This email will have a code you can use as your One Time Password for instant access
!
Invalid One Time Password
Please check you entered the correct info, please also note there is a 10minute time limit on the One Time Passcode
To reset your password, enter your email address
A link to create a new password will be sent to the email address you have registered to your account.
Market Matters members receive daily market reports, real-time trade alerts, full access to 5 portfolios and dynamic company data.
Choose how you'd like to proceed:
We have a range of membership options to suit your needs and budget, why not join today and get unlimited access to the premium Market Matters service.
