Market Matters 2022 Outlook Report - a potential book of 3 chapters

Afternoon report 27/05/2026 17:07

The Match Out: ASX pushes higher as better CPI data should lock RBA on hold

The ASX traded in two very different halves today, opening weaker as Financials extended yesterday’s selling pressure before a softer-than-expected CPI print sparked a broad rebound across the market. Once the inflation data hit, rate-sensitive sectors quickly caught a bid as traders pared back expectations of another near-term RBA hike, helping the index finish strongly into the close.

Morning report 27/05/2026 09:29

Portfolio Positioning: The employment data was soft; will inflation follow suit?

The ASX gave back Monday’s gains on Tuesday, slipping -0.4% to leave the market effectively flat for the week — a frustratingly familiar pattern that has played out repeatedly throughout May. The weakness was caused by a ~2% gain in crude oil after US and Iranian forces clashed near the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting the tension between the two sides even as they “claim” progress toward an interim peace deal; a similar tale to the last ~90 days.

Afternoon report 26/05/2026 17:29

The Match Out: US strikes rattle the open but the ASX refuses to panic

The ASX dropped to open the session but clawed back some of the losses through the day with the local market digesting fresh US strikes on Iranian targets this morning. While the escalation initially rattled sentiment, investors seemed reluctant to panic, with oil prices remaining relatively subdued despite the developments.

Morning report 26/05/2026 09:33

What Matters Today: After the War – How to Play Energy if Hormuz Reopens

The ASX 200 enjoyed a far better day than the Futures market was suggesting on Saturday morning, as hopes for a deal to end the US-Iran conflict improved investor confidence and pushed oil prices down by more than 4% during our trading session. Global markets from Tokyo to China and Australia embraced news that officials signalled the US was nearing a deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore oil flows - we’ve heard it before.

Afternoon report 25/05/2026 16:33

The Match Out: Oil drops on Iran optimism as gold and coal steal the show

The ASX finished modestly higher to start the week as oil prices fell more than 5% on growing optimism that a US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be imminent.

Morning report 25/05/2026 09:36

Macro Monday: Markets are pricing an imminent deal

Over the weekend, President Donald Trump said a peace agreement with Iran had been “largely negotiated” and indicated a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be announced shortly. Iran also signalled negotiations were progressing, while US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said there may be “some good news” on the key shipping route in the coming hours, raising hopes the conflict may finally be moving toward de-escalation.

Weekend report 23/05/2026 10:29

Weekend Q&A: Soft Australian employment data questions the path of the RBA

The ASX200 needed a storming return to form on Thursday & Friday to end the week up just +0.3%, as news around the US-Iran War finally supported local stocks. The choppy week saw early negative sentiment push the index down to a fresh 7-week low, testing below the 8500 level before some bargain hunting returned. The major miners led the market's recovery, reflecting an improvement in risk appetite given the sector’s strong leverage to global growth expectations, although both BHP Group (ASX: BHP) and Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO) still finished the week modestly lower.

Afternoon report 22/05/2026 16:48

The Match Out: Copper upgrades carry the ASX to a positive week (just)!

The ASX edged higher to close out a mildly positive week, helped by improving reports on the Middle East and softening expectations for Australian interest rates. Miners and Energy stocks led the line today, though it’s been a particularly volatile week, with several triple digit moves, even though we’ve ended only +0.3% above where we started.

Morning report 22/05/2026 09:22

ETF Friday: Four ASX ETFs that could shine if the RBA doesn’t hike again in 2026

The ASX200’s roller coaster ride through May continued on Thursday with a strong +1.5% bounce as hopes increased that a deal to resolve the conflict in the Middle East was approaching. Unfortunately, we’ve heard it all before. Let's hope it will eventually come to fruition, but in the meantime, 3-weeks into May and triple-digit moves have become commonplace, even though the index is down just 0.5% for the month.

Afternoon report 21/05/2026 17:17

The Match Out: Jobs miss + Iran deal = best day in six weeks

The best in six weeks for the ASX today with positive leads from the US and a surprise jump in unemployment reduced rate hike expectations. Oil prices down, bonds yields down and stocks up – hopefully, a sign of things to come.