When inflation rises it takes interest rates along for the ride which flows down to multiple contraction / a drop in valuations i.e. people are prepared to pay less for a company’s potential growth / yield because they can suddenly get an improving return on their risk free funds at the bank i.e. a major tailwind for stocks has become a headwind
The US literally pumped money / stimulus into their economy after the GFC but the amount pales into insignificance compared to their extreme efforts post-COVID, never in history has the global economy experienced such phenomenal economic stimulus effectively providing “free money” which has fuelled massive M&A and buyback activity in equities
MM believes that company buybacks are close to a point of inflection which should remove an enormous tailwind for stock indices i.e. one of the largest net buyers of stocks may retreat
MM remains mildly bullish Australian equities looking for 4-6% further upside i.e. not a big call but we do anticipate reducing our risk if such a move unfolds
MM is looking for around 10% upside in copper in the coming months but we must remain mindful of how quickly some moves unfolded in 2020/21, in both directions!
The ASX200 put on a fighting performance today, gapping down ~80pts on the open but recovering every last point of the deficit to finish mildly higher. The key news for the day was the Reserve Bank leaving the cash rate unchanged at 4.35%, pausing after three consecutive hikes this year.
The ASX 200 rallied another +1.3% on Monday, following reports that the US and Iran have agreed on the terms of a peace deal. The index extended its advance for June to more than +2%, taking it back within ~3% of its February all-time high, ironically just before the US-Iran conflict erupted. Gains were fairly broad-based, with 70% of the main board advancing.
The ASX built on Friday's strength and rallied again today, with the local bourse embracing news of a US-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and removing the biggest macro risk hanging over markets in recent months. The rally was broad, but Materials did the heavy lifting.
SpaceX’s (NASDAQ: SPCX) much-heralded IPO hit the boards on Friday, rewarding the lucky initial buyers with a +19% gain, and turning its founder, Elon Musk, into the world’s first trillionaire. At the same time, the record-breaking IPO created a US$2.2 trillion behemoth, making it one of the largest companies in the world despite investors still debating its path to sustainable profitability.
After a shaky start to the week, the ASX200 finished with a flourish, rallying 2% on Friday to end the week up 1.4% as risk appetite returned. Following several sessions dominated by geopolitical headlines, the ASX delivered its strongest weekly gain in two months as markets embraced the prospect of a US-Iran peace deal and the accompanying pullback in oil prices, which reversed more than US$10/barrel from their weekly highs.
The gains were driven primarily by rate-sensitive sectors, with Consumer Staples (+9%), Consumer Discretionary (+8%), Healthcare (+7%) and Real Estate (+5%) leading the charge.
The winners' enclosure was also dominated by underperformers as investors went bargain hunting into EOFY, while the laggards had a distinctly gold and uranium flavour.
The ASX finished the week with its strongest session since April, surging almost 2% on the day after US President Donald Trump suggested a deal with Iran could be signed as soon as this weekend. The move wasn't confined to a handful of stocks with around 85% of ASX 200 companies closing higher on the session.
For the 3rd consecutive session, the ASX200 opened on its lows only to defy the bears and news headlines to drive higher. If it weren't for the “Big Four Banks” tumbling ~2%, the index would have closed up on the day, with the four pillars taking more than 40-points off an index that only slipped 20-points.
The ASX spent much of today proving a point that has become increasingly apparent over recent weeks – investors are prepared to look through the headlines. Fresh US strikes on Iranian targets overnight initially sparked another risk-off move across global markets, sending oil higher, pushing the Aussie dollar to a two-month low and weighing on growth stocks.
The ASX 200 enjoyed another solid performance on Wednesday, trading lower in the first hour before again pushing up throughout the session to finish the day up +0.6%. The local bourse has delivered consecutive strong intra-day performances, despite headwinds from overseas markets, with US S&P futures trending lower while we pushed higher, daring us to question if the ASX has finally regained its mojo?
The ASX pushed higher today despite another round of US-Iran hostilities overnight, with investors continuing to look through the latest developments in the Middle East and instead focusing on the broader trajectory of negotiations.
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