Morning report 20/07/2026 09:36

Macro Monday: Faster rallies, harder falls – has the Market evolved?

Equities have been volatile through 2025–26, unsettled by both the Liberation Day tariff shock and the US-Iran conflict, yet despite the relentless headlines, the ASX 200 has gained less than 1% since the start of 2025. However, on the stock and sector level in particular, volatility has been even more pronounced due to the combination of increased leverage and crowded positioning:

Weekend report 18/07/2026 09:03

Weekend Q&A: The ASX200 continues to tread water around 8800, despite plunging semiconductors

The ASX 200 finished a volatile week virtually unchanged, holding the key 8,800 level despite escalating US-Iran tensions and a near-20% plunge in semiconductor stocks. The broader tone turned “risk-off” late in the week, with the miners the main weight on the index on a combination of renewed fighting around the Strait of Hormuz and disappointing trading updates from the likes of BHP Group (ASX: BHP) and Evolution Mining (ASX: EVN).

Afternoon report 17/07/2026 17:29

The Match Out: Resources hit as ASX ends down for the week

The ASX was lower today with a sharp sell-off across gold, copper and lithium stocks overwhelming solid gains in energy, utilities and communications. The index recovered from its session low but still ended the week marginally lower as renewed fighting in the Middle East, rising oil prices and the prospect of higher-for-longer interest rates weighed on risk appetite.

Morning report 17/07/2026 16:38

ETF Friday: Assessing 3 ETFs that are experiencing noticeable outflows this week

July has seen a tale of two halves for ETF flows: The month began with a sharp risk-off rotation as investors cut exposure to technology and AI, with the Nasdaq tracking QQQ losing ~US$11.5bn over four consecutive sessions, the S&P 500 tracking IVV shedding ~US$1.7bn, and software ETFs also suffering heavy redemptions. The standout exception was semiconductors, where SOXX attracted a record US$3.4bn in the week to 10 July, while US-listed ETFs remain on track for a record US$2tn of inflows in 2026.

Afternoon report 16/07/2026 16:44

The Match Out: Weaker numbers from BHP cap market gains

The ASX 200 finished essentially flat today, with strength across financials, communications and consumer discretionary offset by sharp weakness in materials and energy. The market recovered from earlier losses but struggled to make headway as BHP reversed much of Wednesday’s rally and oil-exposed names continued to give back recent gains.

Morning report 16/07/2026 09:17

What Matters Today: The “Aussie Dollar” is telling us it’s time to be long the miners

Afternoon report 15/07/2026 17:06

The Match Out: ASX higher as US banks deliver blockbuster results

The ASX ground higher today, with strength in the heavyweight miners offsetting weakness across energy, consumer staples and communications. It was the first session in over five where stocks opened firm, yet selling ticked up over the course of the day, with the market finishing well off it’s early peak. While we’re bullish on the market, investors are still in this buy weakness, sell strength mentality while the Middle East situation remains unresolved – lets hope we can get back to focussing on earnings at some point.

Morning report 15/07/2026 09:51

Portfolio Positioning: The ASX200 “again” looks poised to test the 9000 level

The ASX 200 has now rallied from early losses to close near its highs for five consecutive sessions, after recovering an early 50-point deficit on Tuesday to end the session flat. The miners bounced strongly to close higher despite crude oil trading ~5% higher, with Evolution Mining (+3.2%), South32 (+2%), Regis Resources (+2%), Sandfire (+1.5%), and BHP Group (+0.6%) catching our eye as a slow but steady bid tone surfaced across the gold and copper names. These miners were helped by a recovery in gold (+0.5%) and copper (+1.5%) during our trading session as the $US edged lower ahead of the important US CPI inflation data.

Afternoon report 14/07/2026 17:26

The Match Out: The market ‘wants’ to go up

Another session where stocks were hit early before a spirited fightback saw the index little changed, recovering ~50pts from the session low. It certainly seems the market wants to go up;  it just can’t get any clear air out of the Middle East. The ASX 200 finished virtually unchanged on Tuesday as weakness in the banks, consumer staples and property stocks was offset by strong gains across energy and materials.

Morning report 14/07/2026 10:01

What Matters Today: Should we sell when insiders do?

The ASX 200 has now rallied from early losses to close near its highs for four straight sessions, a classic hallmark of a market with strong underlying buying support. The banks helped the market close higher on Monday, despite 60% of the main board closing lower, but overall it was a fairly lacklustre session considering the fresh US-Iran fighting, which sent US stock and bond futures lower as oil pushed back towards US$80/barrel. Again, we ignored sharp losses across the semiconductor space in Asia, but that’s no major surprise, given the dearth of major AI stocks on the ASX. Unfortunately, news out of the Middle East continued to deteriorate overnight: