Morning report 02/07/2026 09:31

What Matters Today: Should we chase or fade the 5 big movers from Wednesday?

The ASX 200 followed US futures lower on the first day of FY27, finishing the session down -0.6%, and testing three-week lows in the process. While weakness was broad-based, with over 60% of the main board closing lower, the financials contributed close to 90% of the decline as fears grow that Australia's housing market is deteriorating faster than initially feared, with the trifecta of cost-of-living pressures, three RBA rate hikes in 2026 and the recent changes for property investors in the budget keeping buyers firmly on the sidelines.

Afternoon report 01/07/2026 17:03

The Match Out: Banks stumble as the new financial year begins

The ASX kicked off FY27 with a disappointing start, with heavy selling across the banks and consumer staples proving too much to overcome despite a solid rebound in the resources sector. The market drifted lower through the session as investors locked in profits from some of FY26's biggest winners, while strength in Materials and Healthcare provided little support against broad-based weakness elsewhere.

Morning report 01/07/2026 09:42

Portfolio Positioning: Will the Resources Outperform Again in FY27

The ASX200 accelerated on the downside into the EOFY close on Tuesday, ultimately finishing the session down by -0.5% with investors appearing keen to lock in some tax losses ahead of FY27. The market ultimately waved goodbye to FY26 with a paltry +2.8% gain, although considering we had a war in the middle of it and oil trading above US100/barrel it wasn’t a bad result. We expect FY27 to deliver similar volatility on the stock and sector level but hopefully without the geopolitical interruptions.

Afternoon report 30/06/2026 16:45

The Match Out: ASX slips as EOFY selling weighs on the close

The ASX spent most of the session churning in a relatively tight 20-point trading range, with strength in the banks and technology sector largely offset by another weak day for the miners. The market looked comfortable drifting sideways for much of the afternoon before that balance broke down into the close, with the index accelerating lower in what looked like end-of-financial-year tax-loss selling. There were few buyers willing to absorb the selling pressure, leaving the index to finish well off its intraday highs. Despite the weak close, today's price action looked more like portfolio positioning than a deterioration in the macro backdrop.

Morning report 30/06/2026 09:15

What Matters Today: Five Quiet Achievers Delivering in 2026

The ASX 200 finished strongly on Monday, closing back above 8800 despite renewed geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran. Financials and materials contributed around 70% of Monday’s gains, although the broader market was stronger than it looked, with much of the real estate sector trading ex-dividend. Healthcare also stood out again, with CSL managing to edge 0.5% higher despite warning it expects to halt new EU patient starts for Tavneos- clearly there's a lot of bad news built into the CSL share price ~$115, suggesting limited downside from here.

Afternoon report 29/06/2026 16:42

The Match Out: ASX moves higher as US-Iran ceasefire holds on shaky ground

The ASX recovered some of last week's weakness to finish higher, as investors looked through ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and rotated back into beaten-down growth names.

Morning report 29/06/2026 09:37

Macro Monday: Could the AI Trade be the next Gold & Bitcoin?

Last week saw a sharp reversal across the high-flying semiconductor stocks, many of which had surged around fourfold over the past 12 months. We have already seen in Bitcoin and gold over the past year that crowded enthusiasm can unwind quickly when the mood shifts. Even SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) closed more than 30% below its post-IPO high on Friday.

Weekend report 27/06/2026 09:24

Weekend Q&A: The EOFY looms with the ASX200 still treading water.

The ASX200 ended the week down -0.7%, leaving the index a mere +0.4%, after promising so much in the middle of last week. The main drag on the index was again the miners, despite a bounce on Friday, with heavyweights RIO (-2%), BHP Group (-2%), and Mineral Resources (-12%), offsetting a recovery in the rate-sensitive retail, healthcare, and real estate sectors. We’re now six months into 2026, and the index is up less than 1%, despite strong moves in both directions.

Afternoon report 26/06/2026 16:37

The Match Out: ASX edges higher as gold miners recover from recent weakness

A flat finish capped off a soft week for equities, with the ASX 200 down 0.8% and just two trading sessions remaining before EOFY. Technology (-5%), Materials (-4%) and Energy (-4%) were the week's biggest drags, while investors rotated into more defensive areas such as Consumer Staples (+3%) and Utilities (+2%). The standout, however, was the beaten-down retail sector, which rallied more than 3.5% for the week. We continue to see further upside here as the market increasingly prices out the prospect of additional interest rate hikes by the RBA.

Morning report 26/06/2026 09:22

ETF Friday: Is the Oil Selloff Creating a Buying Opportunity in Energy ETFs?

The ASX200 retreated by -0.7% on Thursday, yet the number of winners and losers was evenly matched. As we’ve touched on a few times this week, the market is going through a “risk-off” period with investors rotating into some of the more defensive and often underperforming names of FY26. If MM is correct and the $A finds support ~69c, the current aggressive profit-taking in the miners could be approaching its conclusion, perhaps in time for the start of FY27.