Ask Shawn: Equities rotate around before the Fed’s next meeting

The ASX200 ended its penultimate week of October down -1.2% with the damage unfolding over the last 2-days hence going into the weekend the market actually felt far worse, however, the market remains up over 200-points for the month – it certainly doesn’t feel like it! Yet again the Energy Sector was best on the ground while the Utilities Sector carried the wooden spoon. We can see the local index remaining in the 6600 – 6800 trading range into next month although we still believe the risks are on the upside.

Equities feel like they are treading water ahead of the Fed’s next interest rate decision on the 2^nd of November.

As we see some stocks reveal their sins in quarterly updates one thing remains very clear i.e. misses will not be tolerated and especially for stocks that are priced for any degree of growth.

Investors are comfortable in cash hence companies need to perform to avoid a stampede for the exit door – classic bear market sentiment.

The global/local macro news continues to cross our screens at a rate of knots from the UK losing another PM, to China listening to Xi Jinping’s plans for the next 5-years, Australia’s unemployment rate holding at a 50-year low, and a 2nd major data hack this time at Medibank. However, equities continue to swing on the hawkish rhetoric from Fed members when its quiet stocks rally but all too often someone comes out and talks extremely tough on interest rates through 2023.

US stocks surged on Friday night with the S&P500 closing up +2.4% as traders ploughed back into risk assets after bond yields turned lower and the BOJ intervened in the FX market buying Yen. Traders remain fixated on the world’s biggest bond market ahead of the Fed with any moves leading to major swings in sentiment, last night we saw the US 10-years slip back to 4.22%, still up for the week but it was enough to propel stocks higher i.e. just an end to the steep ascent by yields could deliver MM’s targeted Christmas rally. SPI Futures are calling the local market up almost 100-points on Monday morning, back towards its October high.

We continue to believe both US & Australian equities will be higher come Christmas but volatility is unlikely to disappear in the near future.

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Weekend report 18/04/2026 10:36

Weekend Q&A: US stocks punch to new all-time highs as the Strait of Hormuz opens

The ASX200 finished the week down -0.2%, snapping a 3-week winning streak as it failed to embrace the strength across global indices. A +13% surge by the tech sector wasn't enough to offset losses by the influential banks, with the financial sector ending the week down -2.1%. Westpac set the tone early in the week, flagging that interest-rate volatility tied to the Iran conflict had hit its market’s income and prompted higher credit provisions. While not unexpected given rising rates, cost-of-living pressures and higher fuel prices, the update reinforced a cautious “if in doubt, get out” stance from investors ahead of May results from ANZ, NAB and Westpac

Afternoon report 17/04/2026 16:58

The Match Out: ASX drifts as ZIP surges and banks stay under pressure

The ASX 200 slipped today, ending the session lower, awaiting further clarity on negotiations around the US-Iran ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The market snapped a three-week winning streak after the sharp rebound seen earlier in the month, though the pullback looks more like a period of consolidation rather than a meaningful shift in the broader trend.

Morning report 17/04/2026 09:36

ETF Friday: As the War Premium Unwinds, Four Energy ETFs Back In Focus

For a third consecutive session, the ASX 200 opened strongly above 9000 before falling away throughout the day, dragged lower by the influential banks - it must be reading the MM report this week! Such is the hefty influence of the banks that, although over 60% of the main board closed higher on Thursday, an average drop by the “Big Four Banks” of over 2% was enough to drag the index down by 0.3%. Under the hood, the markets following the MM script so far this week.

Afternoon report 17/04/2026 09:37

The Match Out: Tech roars but banks drag as the ASX slips

The ASX wavered today as investors balanced improving global risk sentiment against fresh domestic data. The local market initially opened higher following record closes on Wall Street, but struggled to hold early gains as traders digested Australia’s latest labour market report.

Morning report 16/04/2026 10:20

What Matters Today: The War Trade Unwinds – How to Reposition in Energy

The ASX200 again drifted lower after a strong open to finish Wednesday's session up just +0.1% - closing above the psychological 9000 level is proving tough after the recent strong run. The banks were again the main drag on the index, with the “Big Four Banks” all closing down on the day, with Westpac’s -1.9% fall the standout following their Tuesday update. On the sector level, the tech names outperformed for a change, gaining +2.4% while the energy names took the wooden spoon, slipping -1.9%.

Afternoon report 15/04/2026 17:10

The Match Out: ASX consolidates as EVN leads the gold charge

The ASX looked set for a strong day early, but only finished marginally higher. We probably sound like a broken record at times – the ASX will struggle to push meaningfully higher without the banks leading, but today was the perfect example. The index briefly pushed above the 9,000 level intraday, though selling in financials capped the advance.

Morning report 15/04/2026 09:50

Portfolio Positioning: Cracks in the Consumer – Reviewing Exposure as Confidence Slides

The ASX200 limped to a 45-point gain on Tuesday, after opening with a bang it surrendered more than 50% of its early gains as the banks came under pressure, courtesy of Westpac (ASX:WBC). From a points perspective it was very much a market of two halves with the two heavyweight market sectors pulling in opposing directions:

Afternoon report 14/04/2026 17:21

The Match Out: ASX cracks 9,000 level then fades, Westpac flags Middle East conflict impacts

Today’s session kicked off with a strong open with the index pushing through the 9,000 level for the first time since early March before giving back some ground through the day, ultimately consolidating through the afternoon into the close.

Morning report 14/04/2026 09:44

What Matters Today: Four ASX200 Stocks With Plenty to Gain From AI Cost Savings

We felt the ASX200 delivered a solid performance on Monday given the weekend's disappointing developments out of Pakistan around the US-Iran war, and the headwind of weakening global futures throughout our session.

Afternoon report 13/04/2026 17:13

The Match Out: ASX closes lower but digs in as US-Iran talks sour

The ASX finished lower today though the move was somewhat contained considering the escalation in rhetoric around the Middle East conflict. The local market entered the session digesting the breakdown of peace talks between the US and Iran in Pakistan over the weekend, with President Donald Trump announcing plans for a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, causing a +7% spike in oil prices.