HomeReports3 stocks of interest as we learn from March – Part…
After 6-trading days in a tight 125-point / 2% range the ASX200 gave any complacent investors a quick COVID-19 shot across the bow as the local market tumbled -2.5% on Thursday. The catalyst for the selling was the increasing cases of coronavirus creating serious doubt in many investors’ minds around how quickly the global economy can put the pandemic well and truly in the rear-view mirror. Our current opinion at MM is equities did get slightly ahead of themselves in writing off the virus but we’re better prepared for secondary outbreaks plus of course every week that passes is a week closer to a vaccine Hence MM remains buyers into weakness. Plus, to help us all from an investing perspective we’ve now got a potential road map of sector performance from March until today.
Note Australian bond yields are now over 20% above their US peers - illustrating why we are seeing some strong buying in the $A, its simply where you’ll earn more interest on your money
It was a mixed session for the local bourse as China’s long-awaited rate cuts came into play, lifting commodities and energy stocks higher. A solid result from NAB provided the bedrock for a decent rally through the middle of the day, with US futures giving an extra kick amid expectations Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is due to meet senior Chinese officials in Switzerland on Thursday.
The ASX200 slipped 0.1% on Tuesday, posting its second consecutive negative session, although it's hardly made a dent in the aggressive 15% recovery from the early April panic lows. Trading was relatively subdued with fund managers focused on the Macquarie Australia Conference, which is often regarded as an early confession opportunity. Results were mixed on Tuesday, but the presentations continue to move markets as investors look for clues around what comes next, outside of the chatter around Trump and the weekend Federal Election.
A second day of declines for the ASX, though it was hardly aggressive, and more stocks actually rose than fell, as banks and healthcare names weighed at the index level. The Macquarie conference kicked off this morning and we’ve seen a bunch of companies recut guidance, more on the downside than upside which is customary but it wasn’t all bad news with several re-affirming prior numbers.
The ASX200 struggled on Monday following a mildly softer report from Westpac (WBC), the first influential bank to face the music this month. Their headline first-half miss on profit, a flat dividend (76c) when the market was looking for an increase and a slight net interest margin (NIM) contraction sent the 4th largest stock on the bourse down 3% on the day.
Red returned to the screen today with broad based weakness across the ASX. The banks came under pressure after Westpac’s 1H25 numbers mildly underwhelmed while a sharp pullback in Oil prices put the Kibosh on the energy stocks. It’s been a very good run in the market from the 7th April low of 7169, with the ASX 200 up ~1000pts / 15%, some consolidation of the move now likely in our view.
The S&P 500 has extended its post “Liberation Day” rally to the longest winning streak in two decades, with worries around tariffs being replaced by “Fear of Missing Out” (FOMO) for cashed-up investors. A strong jobs report on Friday compounded optimism that the US and China’s dialogue around tariffs would prove fruitful.
The ASX 200 surged another +3.4% last week, taking the main index up almost 15% from its April low, amazingly back within 4.4% of its February all-time high. We suspected “Offshore Buying” had been creeping into our market, and the last three sessions convinced us of it as the market again ended another week on its highs. All 11 main sectors finished the week higher, but a +9.6% surge by the tech sector stood out after strong earnings from US heavyweights Microsoft (MSFT US) and Meta Platforms (META US) re-ignited the “AI trade” and overall belief towards the tech/growth names:
The trend of ‘risk off into the weekend’, prevalent in early April, has well and truly flipped as the ASX closed higher on the final trading day of the week for the 3rd consecutive week this afternoon.
Different month, same ASX200, the local market opened down before slowly climbing higher throughout the day to ultimately end the session up +0.2%, near the intraday high. The tech sector led the gains, surging over 4% following strong results overnight from Meta Platforms (META US) and Microsoft (MSFT US) – more on the AI & Data Centre stocks later. It was the sixth consecutive daily gain for the ASX200, although it was the weakest session since the advance began, and some consolidation is feeling close at hand.
The ASX backed up a solid recovery in April with a positive session to kick off May with 70% of the main board finishing higher. While the influential banks and resources generally struggled, there were some good moves elsewhere with technology and Date Centre stocks buoyed by better results from Meta and Microsoft overnight that imply AI spending remains robust.
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