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Your thoughts on Harvey Norman (ASX:HVN) and Premier Investments Ltd (ASX:PMV), plus Pexa Group (ASX:PXA)

Our Q&As are emailed in our Saturday Morning Report, find the answer to this question below.

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Your thoughts on Harvey Norman (ASX:HVN) and Premier Investments Ltd (ASX:PMV), plus Pexa Group (ASX:PXA)

Dear Esteemed Team, You have recently said that now is the time to get into QUALITY retail stocks. It appears your favourites are JBH & NKS, with SUL as a possible plan B. Why are PMV and HVN not making the cut ? It seems like PMV has a lot of upside with juicy forecast future dividends ( although there is a big difference between a forecast dividend and an actual one) , HVN has a good bedrock of owned real estate property and a pretty good track record. What are the major flaws or risks with these 2 companies at the moment? It seems a time for some optimism and boldness_________or am I wrong? PXA has recently been severely downgraded. I have long been a fan of this company and wonder if now is the time to buy as it will probably, in time, recover and then some. Thank you once more for your ever wise consul. Octogenarian

Answer

Hi Octogenarian,

The first off, the cuff comment is we can’t pick/buy them all, but the tape tells the initial tale:

Premier Investments (ASX:PMV) – delivered a soft 1H result in February Here extending the stock’s decline over the last 6-months to ~30%.

Harvey Norman (ASX:HVN) – delivered a disappointing 1H result in February Here, with the the stock down ~10% on the day and extending the stock’s decline over the last 6-momths to ~35%.

However, it’s important to note that the whole Retailing Sector has underperformed noticeably over the last 6-9 months triggered by the market starting to look for RBA rate hikes as opposed to cuts.

  • The ASX200 is flat over the last 6-months while the materials sector is up ~20% but the consumer discretionary space is down ~20%.

After the sectors ~20% correction we’re bullish across the whole sector to greater, or lesser degree.  It’s not for the fainthearted but we do see the retailers higher through 2026. As you say so far, we’ve opted for JBH and NCK in our portfolios, but this exposure may be increased when we feel increasingly comfortable the hiking cycle is maturing. HVN and PMV may figure in our thoughts then depending on the risk we’re looking to adopt.

As for Pexa (ASX:PXA) it initially rallied after its 1H result Here before tumbling ~25% as the market re-priced the digital property infrastructure platform from a high-quality monopoly to a regulated utility with less pricing power as the government now assesses pricing regulation to address it’s dominant market position. At the same time, UBS downgraded the stock and cut its price target sending PXA down ~15% in one painful day.

  • We plan to hold PXA for now but have no plans to add to the position.
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ASX200 Retailing Index
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