Hi Paul,
Kelsian Group Ltd (ASX: KLS) – we 100% agree with you when it comes to ASX companies expanding into the US, the odds have been against shareholders. However, we do have to evaluate each business on their individual merits while keeping a close eye on valuations and risk/reward:
- KLS is forecast to yield just 4% fully franked over the next 12-months and is trading inline with its long term valuation, nothing scary here.
- Revenue is forecast to be flat for FY26 and FY27 which would be one of the reasons they have looked to the US.
Kelsian’s US expansion is being driven by its All Aboard America! Holdings (AAAHI) business, the second-largest motorcoach operator in the US, spanning seven contiguous states. The division delivered 27% revenue growth in the first half of FY26, with management planning further investment to accelerate its North American growth strategy.
- We believe this move is currently delivering and more importantly its not too financially demanding. Hence, we like KLS around the $4.30 area.
Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG) – both AGL and ORG are struggling in 2026, trading down ~10% compared APA Group that we also hold in the Income Portfolio which is up more than +10%.
We discussed AGL in detail on Wednesday here, the conclusion being we are only cautiously bullish as wholesale prices soften and transition-related investment remains elevated.
Last month Queensland’s treasurer publicly “named and shamed” Origin Energy for raising power prices despite the Australian Energy Regulator (AER) releasing a new benchmark pricing structure that could lower household electricity bills by up to 7.2% in south-east Queensland.
Origin itself has acknowledged that current policy settings are not delivering the outcomes required for the energy transition, and that supportive, coordinated government policy is urgently needed to provide market confidence for investment toward net zero by 2050.
- Origin “feels wrong” and all too hard to MM, and a test of $9 wouldn’t surprise. We still have a preference for AGL, given it trades at around half the earnings multiple of ORG.
