View on TWE as an income stock
Hi MM, What is your view on TWE as an income (and possibly growth) stock given poor market sentiment and a price that has fallen below $7? Thanks Peter
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Answer
Hi Peter,
TWE is a stock that’s looked cheap for months, but it continues to plumb new lows, currently trading down ~39% year-to-date. Its trading at an Est. 11.3x for FY26, an extreme for the companies selling alcohol, which also includes Endevour (EDV) – owner of Dan Murphies.
- In the 18–24 age bracket, fewer young people are drinking monthly now than before – 31% down from 39% a decade ago.
- This is more pronounced in the underage bracket (14‑17 year‑olds) – a decade ago, ~70% were drinking under age – that number now sits at ~30%.
This is not just a domestic trend – it is happening globaly. Hence, we are reticent to buy TWE as a long-term investment but a sharp 20-30% bounce wouldn’t surprise. The stock is forecast to yield ~5.8% over the next 12-months so it will in all likelihood be a good “yield play” at some level but it’s hard to identify where.
