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USA and INFLATION

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USA and INFLATION

Good Afternoon, I hope I'm not too late. Another general question if I may. "Trump’s ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ could trigger most inflationary era in half a century. The United States is careening toward what may be the most inflationary policy era in over 50 years, writes Nigel Green." Are the markets getting it wrong or the analysts? I think I'm getting some of Trumps "yips".

Answer

Hi David,

Trump may trigger inflation through his tax bill or tariffs, or both but while that is bad for bonds (yields/rates higher), its not necessary bad for all stocks/sectors.

  • Rate sensitive and growth like tech usually struggle with high inflation.
  • Stocks with real assets &/or exposure to commodities generally perform better.

We can speculate about the likely impacts, and Jerome Powell from the Fed has flagged these risks, but as we’ve seen in markets recently, many predictions around such things are hard to make ahead of time, and we think it’s best to take a wait and see approach to the data, and then make portfolio decisions on the back of that, rather than via speculation that is not based on evidence of even a clear understanding of rates and application of policies at this stage.

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