Hi Simon,
We think you may be looking at the short-term December Futures which have squeezed higher into expiry but when we look a little further out the March contract has bounced but its nothing unusual in what’s been a downtrend since March.
- The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects the price to average about US $3.90/MMBtu in 2026, reflecting expectations of higher production and ample inventories.
Natural gas prices have been weak in 2025 due to abundant supply from U.S. shale and LNG exports, above-average inventories, and softer demand from mild weather and slower industrial growth. Additionally, increased renewable energy use and improved global gas trade flexibility have capped price spikes despite occasional geopolitical risks. We see no reason to fade the trend at this stage.