Hi Derek,
Boss Energy (BOE) has been hammered over the last 6-months, primarily after they withdrew their 2021 Enhanced Feasibility Study for Honeymoon after a review found the geological continuity and leachability of the uranium deposit were weaker than assumed, raising concerns about future production and cost profiles which significantly undermined long-term valuation models and triggered the steep decline.
- Management expects these issues to negatively impact life-of-mine, annual output, and unit costs from FY27 onwards, prompting a full reset of project expectations.
- A preliminary update is due in 1Q CY26, followed by a scoping study in 2Q CY26 and a new feasibility study in 3Q CY26.
For now, BOE remains high risk, even against a supportive uranium price backdrop. Instead of a simple leverage-to-uranium story, this is now a clouded geology and execution question that will take time to answer – it could easily half or double on the next piece of news. After the recent rally from the lows, if we held, we’d probably be tempted to scratch the position and wait for a pullback to buy another stock in the sector, though it’s a hard one to answer.