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Thoughts on Fortescue (FMG)

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Thoughts on Fortescue (FMG)

Hello Esteemed Team, I have long wanted to buy FMG but have never pulled the trigger because it is very cyclical and it is a PURE iron ore play and therefore more vulnerable than BHP or some others. Recently the price dropped below $16 and has now bounced a little above. I suspect there is a good chance it will get to $15 or lower if I am patient. I know MM currently owns FMG in one of it's portfolios. It is one thing to buy a stock for the first time and another to buy more when you own it. What price do you think would be a good buy for an FMG virgin in the current volatile climate and IF the world goes into recession how do you feel FMG would fare considering it really has only one product to sell? Octogenarian

Answer

Hi Paul,

We’ve been watching FMG approach the $16 area over the last few weeks and believe the risk/reward looks great here, especially with analysts already pricing in lower iron ore (Fe) prices.

  • We believe FMG is an accumulate below $16, obviously it may hit $15, or even $14 in these volatile times but we also believe it will retest $21 in 2025, in line with our bullish outlook towards China, making the risk/reward very attractive at current levels.

We own FMG in our Active Income Portfolio for yield but if we had no position, it would certainly be on our radar for the small cyclical component of that portfolio.

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Fortescue Ltd (FMG)
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