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September lows

Our Q&As are emailed in our Saturday Morning Report, find the answer to this question below.

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Question asked

September lows

Hi guys, a real quick one for you. Do you think we will see another sell off in September - October or do you think that Yen/ recession sell off a few weeks ago was all we're going to get for now. I know none of us can tell the future, but I was hoping for a good sell off for a nice entry for ASX200 and ride it all the way for hopefully a X-Mas rally. I just don't feel comfortable entering at current levels. Regards, Simon

Answer

Hi Simon,

The issue is many investors are overweight cash believing the markets too expensive hence as we say the “Buy the Dip” mentality continues to prevail – we’re holding larger cash levels than is ideal with the ASX200 testing the 8100 level. However, we still see some value on a stock-by-stock level post reporting season, but like you, we’re a little more ‘neutral’ at the index level and 50-50 if we see another decent pullback through September/October with two opposing forces at play:

  • Investors are largely overweight cash looking for a pullback hence the path of most pain is on the upside.
  • However, we do think markets are being too dismissive of potential economic contraction through 2025/6.

Sorry to be a bit vague in this instance, not our usual stance!

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ASX200 Index
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