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ReadyTech (ASX: RDY) takeover offer

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ReadyTech (ASX: RDY) takeover offer

Good morning MM people, Once again, I need to ask you, to look at your crystal bowl.🙂 What are your views of the current Readytech (RDY) take over offer? Is it likely to succeed and complete? ...and if it completes, which of the 2 versions are more likely: Scheme of arrangement ($2 per share) or the, Off market proposal ($1.75 per share)? As a general advice, would you sell, hold or buy? Best regards, John

Answer

Hi John,

We do not expect the transaction to proceed under either the Scheme of Arrangement proposal at $2.00 per share or the off-market takeover offer at $1.75 per share. We believe these bids are testers to allow the bidder to perform some further price discovery.

  • ReadyTech’s board has rejected the proposal, arguing that it does not adequately reflect the company’s value and would not be executable in its current form.

With the ~$200mn stock so tightly held, by a few big names, and the stocks daily turnover often less than $0.5mn we see 3 potential scenarios unfolding:

  • The bidder Topicus.com Inc (TSXV: TOI), the Constellation Software-backed European software consolidator, acting through its Dutch subsidiary Total Specific Solutions (TSS) walks away because it cannot get shareholder support at an appealing price.
  • Topicus lifts its bid to a level that generates real shareholder support, we feel it would need to be closer to $2.50 which may be too rich for the suitor.
  • A third party enters the fray, rapidly pushing the price up towards $2.50.

We have no plans to sell our position in the Emerging Companies Portfolio, although a withdrawal of the offer remains a distinct possibility, but we like the risk/reward below $1.60.

NB This isn’t the first-time someone’s bid for RDY, Pacific Equity Partners, lobbed in a $4.50 bid in late 2022 before walking away. The contrast with Topicus’ current $2.00 per share proposal is a reminder of how dramatically software multiples have compressed over the past four years.

  • It’s either a hold or a buy here (we think).
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ReadyTech (RDY)
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