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Question on banks

Our Q&As are emailed in our Saturday Morning Report, find the answer to this question below.

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Question on banks

Hi Shawn, In a recent report you say you like WBC (because of growth) over CBA. As you know CBA has been holding it's price better than the other banks. Yet, it is overpriced as are all Australian Big 4 banks. I have been contemplating selling some CBA and buying a bank that has had a greater % fall in price than CBA. Of course no one knows how far the banks will fall and they certainly won't fall equally by %. As you recommended WBC in your report around $31; it would appear you think that is as far as you think it will drop or is it that you think that all the 4 big banks will drop but WBC is LIKELY to be the least affected. I already have too many bank shares and don't want any more, but, I am not adverse in changing the mix. In short, I guess I am asking you to rate the big 4 banks according to PROBABLE respective growth possibilities in the short to medium term. I am NOT asking about a specific bank only general information. Thank you for the great work you and all the team do. I would like to commend Vanessa on the EXCELLENT assistance she gave me today with a computer glitch I had. You have a great company and it is not just the stock analysts who make it great. Paul

Answer

Hi Paul,

Thanks for the feedback on Vanessa, she’s been with MM for over 8 eight years and is an extremely valuable member off our team.  An area we pride ourselves on at MM is delivering a solid, consistent level of service and insight, delivered by good people, for good people. Longevity & consistency in the core part of the team is important to achieve that.

Our current preference for the banks in order is:

  • Westpac (WBC), ANZ Bank (ANZ), Commonwealth Bank (CBA), and National Australia Bank (NAB).

We have Westpac as our preferred based on a balance of operational execution, valuation and yield.  While they all screen expensive in absolute terms, on a relative basis, WBC at ~$31 trades on 15x and should yield 5.2% FF, and just provided a solid trading update. ANZ has most risk with the SUN integration, though if they get it right, has the most upside and growth potential. CBA is no doubt the best but is priced that way on 24x with a yield of 3%. In the Income Portfolio, we did trim CBA and bought ANZ a little while ago. NAB we think is being challenged and will remain the underperformer.

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Westpac Banking Corp (WBC)
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