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Does MM prefer NST or EVN at current levels?

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Does MM prefer NST or EVN at current levels?

Dear James, NST is up YTD circa 15%, having a good run since mid October. EVN is down YTD circa 30%. Following your purchase of EVN, I am tempted to switch to EVN. Do you envisage more performance upside catch-up for EVN in the next 12 months, especially with a weakening US$, compared to NST? Or would you be a holder (even buyer) of both NST & EVN at present levels? What would your PT be for both please? Thanks Bernie

Answer

Hi Bernie,

A few questions rolled into one with the key probably the $US which has already corrected ~10% from its late September high i.e. a bounce or period of consolidation by the greenback is likely to weigh on gold and its respective producers.

  • if gold and the sector continues to recover we believe EVN will outperform but if it struggles NST looks best positioned. i.e. when things are bullish, the laggards often see the most upside and vice versa when things are bearish.

Hence the answer is likely to be determined by the $US but we bought EVN as we are looking for it to outperform as gold rallies next year – albeit some choppiness likely in the near term.

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Northern Star (NST) v Newcrest Mining (NCM)
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