Hi Young,
A late but topical question.
NST was slammed ~17% at the time of answering this question after downgrading FY guidance for the second time in three months, significantly denting sentiment towards the gold miner. The commentary didn’t convey any confidence and selling accelerated through Friday morning:
- Northern Star said its current “best estimate” is that production will exceed 1.5 million troy ounces in the 12 months to June, though it warned that several factors could still materially affect the final full-year outcome.
It almost reads like “best guess” and if they don’t know, how investors are supposed value the gold miner – hence the big drop and no appetite (yet) from the market to buy the dip.
The good news is that the KCGM Mill Expansion Project remains on track, with commissioning expected in early FY27. That project should meaningfully lift processing capacity and improve operational flexibility at the asset, which remains one of the largest gold mines in Australia.
In the meantime, NST is undertaking an operational review at Jundee, aimed at improving efficiency and prioritising higher-margin ounces. As part of that process, management flagged the potential to redeploy surplus personnel and equipment to higher-margin operations, with changes expected to take place during the June quarter.
- More clarity should come with the March quarterly report on April 22, where the company plans to provide additional details on FY26 production and cost expectations.
If we held the stock, and given the significant ~30% decline, we would be reticent to sell the position until we hear more in April, however, we have no plans to buy NST before then. We do have plans to increase our gold exposure if ongoing weakness in the sector prevails, but we will be looking at the companies such as Evolution (EVN) and Newmont (NEM) that have been delivering operationally.