New Hope Corp (NHC) forward dividends
Hi MM, I enjoyed your article on NHC a few days ago. With coal prices up significantly and NHC ramping up production, do the analysts have a revised view on forward earnings and dividends? Thanks, Peter
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Answer
Hi Peter,
We discussed New Hopes (NHC) mixed 1H result in detail Here.
Operationally, the result was solid, with stable production and confidence that Bengalla will return to full run-rate in 2H FY26 and New Acland continuing to ramp up. Rising coal prices—partly driven by LNG disruption—are supportive near term, though the sector remains highly cyclical, leading to a choppy earnings and dividend profile. Based on current thermal coal prices, we estimate that sustained pricing at these levels could lift FY26 Ebitda 15-20% above consensus, and that would drive a proportionate increase in the dividend.
The half year dividend of 10c was a disappointment after they paid out 34cps in 2025. The next dividend will be higher if coal prices stay higher, and this is being reflected in options pricing (which tries to price upcoming dividends and generally moves ahead of analysts), but we’re not yet seeing analysts move expectations – most are bearish on NHC (Goldmans for instance have a $3.50 PT and sell call). Blending the two on current metrics, we expect a 2H dividend more like ~15c, putting it on a ~4.3% yield for FY26, though noting options traders are thinking they’ll pay more, but analysts (collectively) are thinking they’ll pay less.
They do have higher capex in the coming years, and this is having an impact on dividend levels in the short term – so we would caution about expecting dividends much above 5% in the next couple of years, though they will increase in 2028-29, as its New Acland ramps up and the company lifts its stake in Maxwell. These two assets will likely underpin more than 30% coal production growth, which will lead to higher earnings and dividends over time.
