Hi John,
Two different stocks which have both struggled in recent years:
Nine Entertainment (NEC) – we exited NEC for a small profit in our Emerging Companies Portfolio in January ~$1.12, alert Here. The stocks now testing all-time lows, over 25% lower, in just a few weeks after their 1H result in February disappointed the market: revenue of $1.05bn missed by ~10%. Sentiment wasn’t helped by the company saying, “it’s too early to estimate 4Q performance.”
- Dividend projections fell by ~8% taking its estimated yield to around 8%.
However, Nine did deliver its second consecutive half of EBITDA growth despite weak advertising conditions, driven by strong performances from Stan and its publishing mastheads, alongside $43m in cost savings. The company is also reshaping the business, acquiring QMS Media, selling Nine Radio, and restructuring parts of its TV operations, while the Domain sale strengthened the balance sheet and funded a special dividend, leaving Nine with net cash of $158m.
The result did have pockets of light, but concerns remain that its operating in an “old world” space.
- At this stage, while we don’t think NEC is a dividend trap per se, we see very little growth in the company from here, and therefore for the dividend. When considering dividend stocks, we either look for growth in dividends over time, or we look for very stable and predictable earnings that flow through into very stable and predictable dividends. We don’t think NEC has either of these traits.
Audinate Group (AD8) – We discussed AD8 after their result last month Here. While their 1H26 result showed some growth returning, FY25–26 remain distorted years due to post-COVID inventory digestion and tariff uncertainty. While the long-term story remains intact, we still think it’s too early to be buying AD8, noting they have pretty much no institutional ownership now. The damage from that sell-down has been done, but it does imply that when they start performing again, there is scope for strong share price gains as insto’s come back onto the register – it’s just too early now in our view.
- MM thinks it’s still too early to step back into AD8.