Mining Volatility
Hi James and team, Great work as always with the daily newsletters. It’s my favourite read of the day. What is your highest conviction mining stock with the best prospects over the next 12-18 months? Many thanks Simon
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Answer
Hi Simon,
Not an easy ask after they’ve mostly rallied strongly over the last few months, from copper, to iron ore, lithium, uranium and coal. Hence, we have answered on the basis of “right here, right now”:
- Our favourite commodity medium term remains copper (Cu), but Sandfire (SFR) feels rich around $12.50.
- Alternatives to SFR for Cu are BHP Group (BHP), Evolution (EVN), and Capstone Copper (CSC).
For the risk of being boring we will go for BHP which enjoys strong revenue from Cu, ably supported by iron ore today and potash from mid-late 2027 – In FY25, copper accounted for approximately 45% of BHP’s total underlying EBITDA, marking a significant increase from 29% in FY24.
