Thoughts in regard to Tariffs

Hi Debbie,

Lots of questions rolled into one here around tariffs which in itself is a fluid situation with President Trump very hard to predict. Also, as we alluded to a few times in reports this week we believe the markets focus has moved on from the Middle East & tariffs with Jerome Powell, and the Fed currently garnering the most attention. However, moving back to tariffs we’ve received some news over the last few days, but things are almost definitely likely to change over the coming weeks/months:

• On Friday morning  Secretary of Commerce Lutnick was saying that a US-China a trade truce had been signed.
• In terms of the EU, at the end of the week the EU were considering lowering tariffs on U.S. imports in an effort to reach a resolution with Trump.

While tariffs remain a talking point, and July 9th is D-Day, Scott Bessent has said that any country negotiating in good faith will be offered an extension if a deal has not been agreed.

In any case, we do think central banks and financial markets are beginning to believe their impact on inflation, and economic growth, will be limited – at MM we agree with this core view one of the reasons we’ve remained bullish through the recent volatility.