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James Hardie PLC (JHX) – the way ahead?

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James Hardie PLC (JHX) – the way ahead?

Hi James, Big thanks for all your work! I'm sure I'm one of many wondering about what to do with JHX after its 30%+ decline. It's up today to around $30 and as you noted, some brokers anticipate a "30-40%" recovery. But if it's tied to the US housing market, could be a long wait before it returns to its previous price point around $45. Not planning on doubling-down, but at what price would it be a buy? Would welcome your thoughts. Cheers, G.

Answer

Hi G,

We are with you in not planning to double down although there is plenty of bad news in the share price around $30. The company has literally kicked investors while they were down:

  • The stock was smacked over 35% in March after committing to buy AZEK for $US8.75, a price which many thought was too high. Plus the lack of consideration for shareholders around the structure of the deal and JHX moving forward incensed many investors.
  • This week their 1Q was a big miss which combined with a ~16% downgrade to FY26 EBITDA saw many just dump it out of frustration.

We plan to let the dust settle but at this stage we are more likely to sell the bounce, as opposed to buy the dip. We believe sellers will emerge well before a 30-40% recovery. JHX rallied another 4% in the US on Friday night, so expect further recovery come Monday.

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James Hardie PLC (JHX)
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