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Can the Fed get inflation and interest rates correct?

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Can the Fed get inflation and interest rates correct?

Hi James, Shawn and Team, This is not really a question, just an observation. Back in July 2020 when many of us held Magellan investments, Hamish Douglas / Magellan published "video insights" featuring key internationals. In July 2020, Hamish discussed the then current financial situation with Janet Yellen. https://www.magellangroup.com.au/insights/inreview-perspectives-on-the-future-of-the-global-economy/ The interesting bit was Janet Yellen's perception at that time of the FED's QE , the many levers it has , persistent inflation , the need for very low interest rates for a very long time, etc. Fast forward to 2022 and all we see is one lever the FED and other Central Banks use, namely interest rate increases. If the former Chair of the FED reads the situation so poorly, what happened to all the levers they have / had to ensure a "soft-landing" ? As I read the MM reports and the comments regarding inflation / stagflation, higher interest rates, etc. I just wonder where this leaves us as investors ?? I don't have answers but I am more sceptical about Central Banks and their "understanding" and control of QE / QT Have a great day. JanP

Answer

Hi Jan,

I think we should look at this in 2 different lights one of which is at times frustrating while the other is far more positive:

  1. Central Banks have a history over the decades of often getting things wrong but they are human like you and I, they are trying to smooth out the economic road and while this year hasn’t been their finest hour they did ok through the GFC and COVID. In hindsight I believe they have been too heavy handed in both directions but if you believe in the long term economic prosperity which is the share market when they get it wrong its just providing opportunities.
  2. As we’ve seen this year on the stock level companies can still succeed whatever the the economic backdrop just in tough times there are generally less winners i.e. understand businesses that are doing well share price will invariably follow suit at some point in time.
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US Federal Funds Interest Rate Monthly Chart
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