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Indexes – where to from here?

Our Q&As are emailed in our Saturday Morning Report, find the answer to this question below.

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Indexes – where to from here?

Hi guys, thanks again for the daily views and the effort which goes into it. While I appreciate you prefer to stick with stock selection, I trade cfd index when short of time to keep a finger in the pie. Can I get your updated views on a few indexes please? FTSE - With the election being over by the time you reply, how do you see the index tracking with the new Government? Dow 30 - Has largely under-performed the other U.S indexes. I've stayed out of the Nasdaq for sometime expecting a good pull back and a transition of funds to other sectors. It's pretty clear I got this one wrong. Do you expect it'll be hitting all time highs this year, or $40k? ASX200 - I had been targeting $8050 as my first target and $8180 as the top. Its looking like these maybe a little stretched now after the recent inflation / economic releases. Do you still think there may be a chance we hit them this month. Nasdaq - My favourite, although I've been out for many months now and missed all the exciting returns. I've really thought it'd have to have a good pull back and now very reluctant to enter at these levels and not entering with FOMO. Seeing as this has been driven really only by a few companies, how much could it pull bad with the first poor result. I've been waiting for a good 20%+ correction. How stretched are valuation and breadth across the index? Regards Simon

Answer

Hi Simon,

We do look at individual indices as we consider migrating up and down the risk curve but overall we do consider them as different pieces of a jigsaw looking for clues to the overall roadmap for equities, for example we are bullish both the Japanese Nikkei and European STOXX 5o looking for new highs 3-5% above current levels over the coming weeks, before a downturn becomes a strong possibility. NB This also coincides with the historical seasonals which say investors should be careful through August and September.

  • We like the FTSE post the election but we would be fading new highs. Overall we are concerned as to how market friendly the Labor Government will be for UK stocks# but they should fare well if the resources outperform.
  • The Dow looks neutral to MM as it heads towards the psychological 40,000 area. Aggressive traders could go short into new highs.
  • We can see the ASX200 testing/breaking the 8000 area but we will be looking to become more defensive into such a move.
  • The NASDAQ looks set for increasing volatility with our preferred set up to buy the next 1,000 point pullback, or 5%.
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EURO STOXX 50 Index
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