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Indexes into Christmas

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Question asked 22/11/2024

Indexes into Christmas

Hi guys, Just after your views for US, Euro and Aust indexes into Christmas. I had been waiting for a Santa rally, but since we've had a fairly good run on the ASX, I cashed out due to the multiple uncertainties with Trump, Ukraine, Israel, inflation, tariffs ........... I'm noticing the FTSE and Stoxx50 sitting at reasonable levels, but also elevated risks. Nasdaq, Dow, 2000 and SP500 all sitting at high levels in anticipation for Trumps touches. And even highs for ASX even without China stimulus. It seems to me that the risks are being ignored again (Stoxx50 / FTSE seem to be more sensible). How do you see the risk rewards across them and potential lows / highs? Regards, Simon

Answer

Hi Simon,

The risk reward as we approach Christmas isn’t as exciting as it has been in the past, especially when we’ve seen a spike down in early November, our snapshot view is as follows:

Europe: We’re still looking for 8-10% upside into 2025 but we are slowly losing confidence and if the EURO STOXX 50 cannot hold the 4600 area we will adopt a neutral stance.
US: The bull market remains intact but we struggle to get excited towards the S&P500 above 6000 especially as the influential “Magnificent Seven” continue to lose momentum.
Australia: Our target for the ASX200 over recent months has been the 8500-8600 area, on Friday we tested 8400, hence our target is now less than 2% away

We are cautiously bullish towards stocks into Christmas but after such a strong rally this year any “Santa Rally” might be fairly muted.

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EURO STOXX 50 Index

LAST UPDATED 22/11/2024 11:14

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