Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure (ASX: DBI)

Importantly, there are two separate renewal points. Individual customer take-or-pay contracts currently run to June 2028, with five-year “evergreen” extensions available if customers elect to renew by June 2027, taking them through to 2033. Separately, both DBI’s commercial pricing agreement (TIC schedule) and the QCA Access Undertaking run to 30 June 2031, meaning the pricing mechanism and broader regulatory framework effectively reset at the same time.

This weeks update was encouraging on this front. Demand for terminal capacity has increased to 33Mtpa from 29Mtpa, despite DBI’s existing 84.2Mtpa capacity being fully contracted. Management expects existing mines to renew and the terminal to remain 100% take-or-pay contracted:

• Importantly, if customers relinquish capacity, DBI has a substantial queue of miners ready to take it up, with mechanisms to socialise any interim shortfall across remaining users.

For MM, the growing capacity queue materially reduces the perceived renewal risk. It demonstrates that DBI’s infrastructure remains highly sought after which should strengthen DBI’s negotiating position when the Access Undertaking and pricing arrangements come up for renewal in 2031.

In terms of alternative ports, geography is the key – proximity to port is essential.

• MM remains bullish on DBI for yield believing the 2031 reset is more likely to be constructive than disruptive.