Hi Josh,
While we aren’t planning to average our CSL position, we have no plans to exit at this stage. We thought CSL was harshly dealt with after last week’s result:
- The market appeared to have got long pushing the stock up over 20% into its result.
- The stock is now trading ~40% below its 5-year average valuation but short-term growth is now off the table.
We reiterate that this wasn’t a particularly bad result, and in relative terms, a good one compared to many this earnings season:
- The company announced a FY25 profit up 17% to $3.2bn, in line with consensus, after a strong year during which earnings were up 14%, cash flow grew 29%, but the quality was interpreted as average.
The market’s key gripe was the complexity of the result… with restructuring and the spin-out of their vaccine business presenting unknowns – with the initial reaction being ‘too hard’. We’re sitting patiently on the other side of the fence.
If we had no position, we would be considering CSL around $210 but leaving room to average if it tests $200.