Child care stocks – G8 Education (GEM), Embark Early Education (EVO), and Mayfield Childcare (MFD)

Hi Stuart,

The changes do create a genuine demand tailwind, but it’s not as “universal” as the headlines suggest.

• From January 5th, the Child Care Subsidy (CCS) activity test is replaced by the “3 Day Guarantee”: all CCS-eligible families can access at least 72 hours of subsidised care per fortnight (≈3 days/week), and you only need to meet the activity requirements if you want more than that.
• However, CCS is still means-tested via the subsidy rate (high-income families can receive a very low or zero subsidy), so it’s not literally “any parent regardless of income.

These changes do potentially leave room for re-ratings, and especially for operators with spare capacity with childcare earnings highly sensitive to occupancy/utilisation. However, the sector’s binding constraint has often been labour availability and regulatory requirements, not just demand.

• G8 Education (GEM): G8 has recently disclosed weaker occupancy (e.g., “spot” occupancy around the high-60s in late 2025), which means it has plenty of capacity to fill, exactly the situation that a 3-day guarantee can help.
• Embark Early Education (EVO): smaller, typically higher occupancy; policy helps at the margin.
• Mayfield Childcare (MFD) – event-driven more than policy-driven right now given takeover interest.

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G8 Education Ltd (GEM)

LAST UPDATED 05/02/2026 12:42

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G8 Education Ltd (GEM)

LAST UPDATED 05/02/2026 12:42