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Buy the rumour and sell the fact!

Our Q&As are emailed in our Saturday Morning Report, find the answer to this question below.

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Buy the rumour and sell the fact!

Hi I understand the premise of this old rule of thumb but I'm wondering if you could provide a real life example where it's played out recently? Secondly, I wanted to thank you guys for your mea culpa and honesty about the (apparently) miserable journey with Appen as part of your portfolio until you cut it loose last week. It's never easy to admit when you get a stock pick so wrong and many fundies seem reluctant to do it (or they ignore their dud positions completely and shout about the ones they get right). Such an honest admission gives this subscriber faith that you're prepared to stand by your picks and reasoning and then either buy or sell when appropriate. I didn't have Appen so I didn't share the pain but I've had one or two of my own picks that haven't gone to plan. They hurt. Cheers, Carl

Answer

Hi Carl,

Obviously the saying works both ways i.e. “sell the rumour and buy the fact” or “buy the rumour and sell the fact”. The example that sticks most in my mind is March 19th, 2003 when the allied forces rolled into Iraq :

  1. For most of 2002/3 global equities had drifted lower on fears of conflict in Iraq.
  2. The day that allied forces attacked the oil rich nation stocks reversed strongly and commenced an aggressive 4-year advance.

However this style of events are prevalent on both the stock / sector level and whenever we see such potential moves they will be outlined in our reports including the reasoning and logic.

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