Hi Glenn,
We love the hockey stick analogy, more commonly used are a “U-shaped or V-shaped” bottom. In virtually all cases over the years at MM we’ve liked to scale in when we see value and out when things look expensive, or as we often put it “up and down the risk curve”.
There are a few moving parts to our approach, especially when things are evolving so rapidly as they have over recent weeks:
- What is driving markets, and do we agree with the underlying thesis and most importantly what is the catalyst that could turn things around.
- Which stocks/sectors are presenting the best value and risk/reward opportunity into the current weakness, i.e. what do we want to buy when things improve.
- What might change our minds and decide to de-risk further if/when we start buying.
At the moment the actions of President Trump has caused a degree of panic across financial markets for a couple of reasons:
- In January/February stocks were trading on extremely high valuations, as we like to say “priced for perfection” – this has largely been addressed.
- Now they are being priced for some economic slowdown, and although a recession is being mentioned its not yet in prices – we believe this is fair.
- The previously crowded trades, like US tech have born the brunt of selling as the exit door became too small – we believe value is unfolding in a number of these top quality previously high performing stocks.
As subscribers know we are starting to move portfolios back up the risk curve but volatility looks likely to remain elevated and were not going “All In” yet.