Our Q&As are emailed in our Saturday Morning Report, find the answer to this question below.
This mine discovery, fid & construction seems to be going on forever. Around A$15+B investment with production due for CY26. It’s really big in a new industry for BHP. Is there any ‘value’ baked in the current share price for the mine? If so, about how much? Has there been any recent updates from BHP about progress details, markets etc. Do you have a view on worth to BHP? Thanks for your forthright answers and clarity. Glenn
Hi Glenn,
The development of BHP’s Jansen potash mine in Saskatchewan is progressing well. The first phase, which began construction in 2021, is nearly 50% complete and is expected to start production in late 2026. This phase involves an investment of $5.7 billion and is set to produce approximately 4.2 million tonnes of potash annually. The project has been expanded with the approval of a second phase in 2024, which will require an additional $6.4 billion investment. This phase aims to double production capacity to 8.5 million tonnes per year by 2029.
Compared to FY24 iron ore revenue of $US28bn its not big in the coming years, especially with iron moving +/- 10% with the weather. Hence we believe it will move the dial in the next decade but not in the next few years.
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