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BABA – Alibaba- the impact of the US election and China stimulus

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BABA – Alibaba- the impact of the US election and China stimulus

Hi James, (I sent you this query last week but because it was submitted past the Friday noon cut-off time, it wasn't answered - hopefully this time:) I've recently subscribed and am happy with the scope of the information and perspective which MM provides - thanks! I'm aware that you have covered BABA last October when the first round of Chinese stimulus boosted the share price. And with more stimulus last week, an enhanced BABA price. However, the advent of Trump and the prospect of tariffs on Chinese imports to the US makes me question whether BABA is likely to be a long term profitable hold in the future. I am aware BABA is a mammoth with a range of services, and is not wholly dependent on exports, but I am unsure of the substantive 'drivers' of BABA's profitability. Seems at least in the short term, that the share price is dependent on stimulus rather than anything else on the horizon. What are the factors which will make BABA worth holding?

Answer

Hi G,

We have two large forces pulling in opposing directions which is probably why BABA is trading smack in the middle of its last 2-years range.

  • BABA is essentially a data-driven ecosystem which is very exposed to China’s economic recovery. We own BABA in our International Companies Portfolio believing a stimulus led recovery is already slowly underway but investors will need some further convincing.
  • The stock is cheap trading on an Est P/E of 10.25x for FY25 hence we wouldn’t be surprised to see a test of $US130-140 in 2025 if/when things improve.

However, as you mentioned we have the Trump factor to build into the equation with tariffs on all goods while China has announced in one of their most dovish statements in more than a decade, that they are ready to deploy whatever stimulus is needed to counter the impact of expected U.S. trade tariffs on next year’s economic growth.

  • Ultimately, we believe Beijing will achieve its goals which is bullish for BABA.
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Alibaba (BABA US)
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