Atlas Arteria Limited (ASX:ALX)

Hi John,

Thanks for positive feedback, it’s always appreciated by all of the Team at MM.

This is likely to end up being a binary outcome with history telling us that an incumbent board often ultimately doesn’t end up acting in the best interest of shareholders:

• Either the deal falls over and Atlas Arteria slips back towards $4.30.
• Or Atlas increases their bid and we see a takeover by IFM somewhere in the $5.25-5.50 area.

The worst case is IFM get really frustrated with the board and offload their ~34% position, but we regard that as a less than 5% risk. However, considering the stocks almost halved over the last 4-years, in a bull market, we’re confident they aren’t huge fans of the current management.

• The board own less than 1% of ALX, compared to IFM who held more than 34% before the hostile bid.

Hence the board is fighting for shareholders with very little skin in the game themselves, their jobs are probably more important – please excuse our skepticism. However, IFM don’t need to buy much more stock, along with the support of 1 or two large institutions and it could be game over.

• Atlas Arteria has rejected IFM’s $5.3bn bid as being opportunistic and too low, plus they argued the around the structure – we’ve heard that playbook before!

Today we’ve heard that ALX is now in talks to sell its two-thirds stake in Chicago Skyway toll road, if they’re trying to win shareholder trust we believe it will backfire.

• We believe IFM will ultimately gain control of ALX, probably with an increased bid.

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Atlas Arteria Ltd (ALX)

LAST UPDATED 07/05/2026 12:50

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Atlas Arteria Ltd (ALX)

LAST UPDATED 07/05/2026 12:50