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Assessing a company’s risk

Our Q&As are emailed in our Saturday Morning Report, find the answer to this question below.

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Assessing a company’s risk

Dear MM I’ve been a subscriber for quite a few years now and I love getting your views on the market on a daily basis including the end of day take on developments on various companies. I often can’t make sense of company reports etc and really value your take on developments particularly concerning companies I own. I always like to hear what Shawn has to say on the macro front, and everything else for that matter. I am uber impressed by your prodigious output, and it’s quality. It’s also a huge plus for me that you keep us subscribers updated as to buys and sells, not that I usually follow suit though often down the track wish I had. I didn’t set out to blow so much smoke at you, the reason for my message was prompted by your recent mentions of a couple of potential turn around companies whose share prices have plummeted, specifically NEC and RFG. Having been burnt in the past by companies that have gone under I’m wondering how you assess the degree of risk of such companies? Regards Pietro

Answer

Hi Pietro,

Thanks for the feedback, very much appreciated!

So far 2024 has NOT been a year that’s delivered alpha for contrarian turnaround style investors but there are always some exceptions with ZIP coming to mind. Assessing the risk/reward from an investment perspective when attempting to identify a companies ability to improve its fortunes comes down to a mixture of factors including the below:

  • Why are the shares falling, e.g. in the case of Pilbara (PLS) its the persistently weak lithium price that’s caught the sector off guard.
  • Is the market building in significant bad news providing plenty of room for upside surprises.
  • Is the company making a profit and how predictable are earnings, or could it fail as Star Entertainment (SGR) is threatening to do.
  • How is the companies balance sheet, has its got a cash buffer to withstand tough times.

Obviously different stocks/companies have their own individual considerations, and we should never forget that a business is usually cheap for a reason!

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