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Appen and Nuix

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Appen and Nuix

Hi guys, A question primarily about Appen but also somewhat Nuix. I understand you don't provide individual advice, but I'll let you know some specific circumstances to frame my question - but looking for a bit of guidance on your outlook for Appen and whether a higher share price is expected. I've held Appen throughout its downturn. I should have sold. Recently though, there has been a recovery in its share price since late July. Its up about 400% since then. Whats been the reason for the recovery (just because its now profitable?) and do you think its is sustainable? Is the business turning around? Do you have a view about the current outlook? The reason I bring up Nuix is because I also held this throughout its downturn but my view of Nuix was that its a quality business and believed it would turn around once the bad news had washed out - so I never wanted to sell out. I use Nuix in my work and know that the product is fantastic so I had a view that it would turn around eventually. I have a lot less knowledge about Appen. I don't think something similar will happen with Appen but I'm trying to assess how I play this current position, so your views about its future generally would be helpful. Thanks for all your help. Cheers, Josh

Answer

Hi Josh,

For subscribers not familiar with APX it provide data sets to underpin AI and machine learning models, however, their problem has been simple: major customers, such as Alphabet (GOOGL US) has brought this in-house to have more control on the process. We wrote about APX in late September with much of that note still pertinent today.

APXC surged higher after its recent result which saw revenue of $113.4 million, down 18.4% from H1 FY 2023 but losses have improved, and a turnaround is underway. Importantly excluding the loss of Google revenue was only down 1.5%. The company is offering shareholder a glimmer of hope after a really tough few years:

  • over the last 6-months Global Services won 30 new projects including an early-stage large language model (LLM), plus the company delivered solid revenue growth in China and Global Product revenue.
  • APX enjoyed a cash balance of almost $35mn at the EOFY with management targeting cash EBITDA positive in early 2H 2024.

Appen has completed the institutional component of its recent capital raising. It has raised $50 million at $1.92 per new share with the SPP ending on Friday. A well timed raise and we can see the stock retesting its October $2.26 high, but it’s not for us.

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Appen Ltd (APX)
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