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Thoughts on APA please? A positive initial reaction to results last week followed by a progressive decline to multi-year lows. Thanks, Bernie Is it time to bite the bullet and sell APA? Share price continues to decline and with my limited knowledge of charts, they seem to show a continuing downtrend or am I missing something. Thanks Geoff.

Answer

Hi Guys,

There are a few stocks that are reacting worse than we would have expected following their recent report with APA front and centre. They’re FY24 and forward FY25 guidance were inline with consensus but the stocks slipped over 10% from last weeks high,  putting the stock on a yield of 7.9% (unfranked) over the coming 12 months assuming there’s no hidden surprises.

APA’s target price was downgraded by a couple of brokers after their report but Jarden, Jefferies and Macquarie both still have ~$8.40.

However, The Australian Energy Regulator’s Form of Regulation Review of the South West QLD Pipeline (SWQP) could be a material swing factor for APA. We expect a draft decision this month and a final decision in Nov-24 and as we know markets hate uncertainty, especially on the regulator front.

  • We believe APA is presenting excellent risk/reward ~$7.20, especially as a “yield play” but an adverse decision this month could see lower prices in the short term. We do not intend to sell our position at current levels.
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