Bell Financial (ASX: BFG) and Centaurus Metals (ASX: CTM)

Hi David,

Two very different businesses of similar size with remarkably similar chart patterns:

Bell Financial (BFG) is a $445mn diversified financial services company providing stockbroking, wealth management, corporate advisory and margin lending services. Earnings for now are primarily driven by trading activity, advisory fees and interest income from its margin lending book, making the business leveraged to market volumes, investor sentiment and interest rate settings, however, they are also growing their annuity style earnings nicely, benefitting from growth in actual funds under management – this is the key to driving a higher multiple on their earnings.

Revenue has been improving by ~10% pa over recent years, reaching ~$300mn in FY25, but the share price has spent most the last few years between $1.20 and $1.50, supported by a solid ~7% fully franked yield.

The other aspect is the share register. It needs to free up liquidity, with the top two holders owning ~50% of the stock. A liquidity event here would help.

• We actually like the business, and think it could re-rate higher if liquidity improves. It’s cheap for what it is, and pays a solid yield.

Centaurus Metals (CTM) is a ~$350mn mineral explorer and development company focused on advancing its Jaguar Nickel Project in Brazil, one of the largest undeveloped nickel sulphide deposits globally. The company is leveraged to long-term demand for battery materials and electric vehicle supply chains, with its value largely tied to nickel prices and the successful development of Jaguar into a producing mine.

Under its offtake agreement with Glencore, Centaurus is targeting first nickel concentrate production in January 2029. However, before then, management must secure funding, make a Final Investment Decision (FID) by September 2026 and meet key construction milestones, including progress on the project’s tailings facility.

• The biggest near-term challenge is financing: CTM is seeking approximately $US380 million in funding, split between strategic equity and debt.

While the Jaguar project’s economics remain attractive, with a rapid payback period and strong forecast cash generation, investors should remember this remains a pre-revenue development story. No meaningful mining revenue is expected before 2029, and the path to production remains heavily dependent on funding and execution.

• We like CTM as a “bottom draw” stock – patience will probably be required.

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Bell Financial Group Ltd (BFG)

LAST UPDATED 03/06/2026 13:57

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Bell Financial Group Ltd (BFG)

LAST UPDATED 03/06/2026 13:57