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4D Medical Ltd (4DX)

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Question asked 13/09/2025

4D Medical Ltd (4DX)

Dear Team MM 4D Medical (4DX) has been on a phenomenal upward trajectory during the last couple of weeks (doubling in price in less than a week!), based on a series of positive news reports such as: - FDA approval for its flagship CT:VQ product - Contracts with the Royal Melbourne hospital, Spectrum in NSW, and a major Brazilian pharmaceutical company - Distribution partnerships with Phillips and Pro Medicus - A $10 million strategic investment by Pro Medicus A number of commentators are very bullish on the counter, with one going as far as predicting its potential to become a 100-bagger, based very much on the precent set by Pro Medicus. I would like to hear the Market Matters view on 4DX. What are the chances of this company becoming a second Pro Medicus? And lastly, would you, if you had no 4DX shares, start a position at these levels, or would you wait for the dust to settle a bit before you start a position at lower levels? Looking forward, as always, to hear your views. Kind regards Lambertus

Answer

Hi Lambertus,

4DMedical, is a medical technology company specialising in four-dimensional lung imaging, which transforms standard X-rays and CT scans into detailed, quantitative maps of lung function, helping clinicians detect and manage respiratory diseases with greater precision – the company’s share price has surged in recent weeks. The move is history, what comes next is interesting but we’re always sceptical when commentators start talking 100-baggers as it’s often to create clicks & hits.

Firstly, the comparison to Pro Medicus (PME) is a step too far in our opinion with PME more like a tech business as opposed to healthcare, the ASX sector where it actually resides.

4DMedical offers a diagnostic modality that gives a more granular, functional view of lung ventilation, which can detect issues earlier than many structural imaging tools. Pro Medicus offers the infrastructure and software platform for interpreting, storing, transmitting and managing a wide array of medical images at scale.

4DX has considerable upside if it executes well, capturing key U.S. contracts, leveraging FDA / reimbursement wins, and scaling its subscription/licensing model. The potential market is large, and recent developments (CT:VQ approval, Philips partnership, U.S. contracts) give real traction. However, its early days for this ~$930mn business, with positive cashflow not expected until FY28.

We like the risk/reward towards 4DX in the $1.50-75 region but it’s high risk and likely to be a volatile ride.

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4D Medical Ltd (4DX)

LAST UPDATED 11/09/2025 14:08

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