The US dollar traded down to fresh 3-week lows last week following Moody’s downgrade and the weak bond auctions; not a great recipe for a market already down over 10% year-to-date. The current momentum and news flow will likely see the Dollar Index test below 98 again. Still, our preferred scenario is that we won’t see follow-through selling and the $US Dollar will then consolidate between 98 and 102; although in this case, the “surprises” are likely to be on the downside.
- The Greenback looks poised to make fresh 2025 lows in the coming weeks, only 1.2% lower.
MM remains bearish towards the $US medium/long term
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