Novo finally caught a break overnight, with early data on its next-generation diabetes/obesity drug Amycretin giving the stock a much-needed lift. After a year where shares have fallen ~50%, sentiment has been weak, but this is the first genuine positive catalyst the company has had in a while.
Novo reported that Amycretin, a dual-mechanism diabetes/weight-loss drug, delivered:
- Up to 14.5% weight loss over 36 weeks as a weekly injection
- Up to 10.1% weight loss as a once-daily oral version
It’s still early, but these are strong signals that Novo has a credible follow-on franchise beyond semaglutide (Ozempic/Wegovy). Importantly, late-stage trials will begin next year, reinforcing that this is a real pipeline priority, and a critical part of Novo’s attempt to claw back momentum from Lilly.
The boost from Amycretin came 24 hours after another setback. Novo had confirmed that semaglutide failed in two Phase 3 Alzheimer’s studies (evoke & evoke+), having no meaningful difference versus placebo, though this was a low probability outcome in any case.
- Analysts carried just ~5% probability of success into the read-out
The bigger market fear has been whether the miss signals broader pipeline weakness heading into 2026. Goldman’s highlighted that sentiment has already reset, and consensus expectations have been drifting lower for months.
Despite the mixed outcomes, this week tilts net positive for Novo. Amycretin is the real story, and a meaningful sign that Novo’s next generation of GLP-1-based therapies can compete with Lilly’s dominant momentum. The Alzheimer’s miss was expected and does not change the diabetes/obesity investment case.
- NVO has continued to trade down since our update on the stock last month (here), though we remain keen to buy current weakness.
