NHF has struggled through 2023, with the stock down -3.6% year-to-date. At this month’s AGM, their overall volume and topline momentum were generally upbeat, but no details were provided on claims costs and margin performance, and as we know, markets hate uncertainty, tending to assume the worst when information is not forthcoming. However, we are conscious that NHF is trading well below its 5-year average valuation, leaving room to surprise on the upside in 2024.
- We see no reason to fade NHF’s pullback, and a test of $7 wouldn’t surprise.