This diversified property group has traded between $1.80 and $2.50 for the last 3-years, with markets now looking for rate hikes through 2026, it’s easy to imagine the stock drifting back towards the lower end of the range. The company reported a solid start to FY26, highlighting resilience across its residential, development, and investment divisions, but it’s losing an important tailwind. We like MGR as a business with its forecasted 4.6% yield, supportive, but the stock is trading around its average valuation, which feels rich to us at this stage of the economic cycle, especially ahead of its result next week.
Recurring rental income and leasing gains from the investment portfolio remain the stable base of Mirvac’s earnings, with occupancy rates rising to 98% in FY25. The year also saw a strong rebound in residential activity: Mirvac settled exchanged on 2,100 lots, up 39% on the prior year, while pre-sales reached ~$1.9 billion – this growth may be hard to replicate even with the country’s desperate need for housing if interest rates rise.
- We can see MGR retesting the $1.80 area, which has acted as support for the last four years, although starting to accumulate the stock under $2.00 does have some appeal given it’s sharp ~20% pullback.
MM is cautiously bullish towards MGR under $2
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