Iron Ore has been remarkably quiet through 2025, considering all the economic worries that tariffs have created. The bulk commodity and related names have improved this week on optimism that a recession is no longer likely as trade deals start to take shape. Importantly, analysts remain bearish, with the December Futures trading at a 6.5% discount to current levels—i.e., the market remains in Backwardation. However, as the US-China trade tensions improve, and we think another bout of China stimulus is likely, iron ore should find support around current levels, which is not factored into share prices.
- We can see iron ore remaining around $US100/MT into Christmas, which is, by definition, bullish compared to consensus forecasts.
MM is neutral to cautiously bullish on iron ore around $US100/MT
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