Gold ($US/oz)

The commitment of traders (COT) report last week showed us that the bullish speculative conviction in gold stalled, at least near term, with the bulls and bears adding almost exactly equal positions. While the gross net long position could still see selling emerge into strength but the near-flat week-on-week change in net positioning suggests to us the market is at an inflection point.

Further, our view that credit markets are too hawkish delivers a great read through for precious metals and although gold only closed up ~2% last week we saw a sharp rally in ASX gold stocks with heavyweights Northern Star (+8%) and Evolution Mining (+5%) outperforming the precious metal.

• We remain bullish towards gold believing tailwinds will gather momentum through the 2H of 2026.