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The ASX200 advanced +0.6%, closing less than 2% below its February all-time high. The market held onto early Wall Street-inspired gains after the US extended its pause on some Chinese tariffs to August 31, providing a tailwind for risk-on sentiment in the region. However, iron ore and base metal stocks struggled after China’s PMI (manufacturing activity) slipped to its lowest since 2022. Over 70% of the main board closed higher, but it was the financials that again led the charge, contributing ~70% of the market’s gain. Most gold stocks pushed to fresh highs while lithium stocks kept falling, raising questions around whether some of them will fail to survive.

Tax-loss selling receives considerable attention throughout June. Still, the other side of the ledger also often witnesses significant moves just in the opposite direction as fund managers push their winners ever higher into the EOFY. Yesterday was another day, one of many through the last year, where the strong got stronger and the weak got weaker. As we often say, never underestimate how far these elastic bands can stretch:

Winners: Evolution (EVN) +4%, Charter Hall Group (CHC) +3.1%, Regis (RRL) +2.1%, JB Hi-Fi (JBH) +1.9%, Medibank (MPL) +1.9%, Commonwealth Bank (CBA) +1.3%, and HUB24 (HUB) +1%.

Losers: Mineral Resources (MIN) -5.5%, Paladin (PDN) -1.3%, HMC Capital (HMC) -1.2%, Nuix (NXL) -1.2%, Iluka (ILU) -0.8%, BHP Group (BHP) -0.6%, and Pilbara (PLS) -0.4%.

Overseas markets were firm with European and US indices moving together, the EURO STOXX 50 gained +0.4% while the S&P 500 advanced +0.6%, helped by a solid almost 3% gain by Nvidia (NVDA US). US stocks extended their gains after employment data showed the US labour market is holding up despite concerns about risks stemming from President Donald Trump’s tariff war.

  • The ASX200 is set to open up +0.3% this morning, back within a few points of the psychological 8500 level.
MM remains cautiously bullish toward the ASX200 through 2025
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