The $US continues moving in tandem with bond yields hence, if we are correct in 1Q, it’s a buy around 100 and sell nearer to 105. We remain ultimately bearish about the $US, but it has already fallen over 13% from its late 2022 high, and a few more months of consolidation is our preferred scenario.
- We remain net bearish towards the $US, but some consolidation/volatility feels likely in the 100-105 region.
MM is bearish toward the $US over the medium/long term.
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The Japanese Yen has followed other cross rates after the Greenback found some love as bond yields bounced and the market’s dovish bets were reined in. However, markets are still pricing in five to six rate cuts by the Fed come early 2025, way too optimistic in our opinion which should support the $US through 2024.
- We remain bearish towards the Yen, looking for a test of its 2023 lows but short-term another foray above 150 wouldn’t surprise.
MM is bearish towards the USDJPY medium-term
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