BHP +2.26%: Delivered a steady September quarter, reaffirming full-year guidance across all key divisions and posting a modest lift in copper and metallurgical coal production.
Copper remains BHP’s standout division — production lifted 4% YoY, driven by stronger output from Escondida, the world’s largest copper mine. CEO Mike Henry again flagged tightening copper market fundamentals as supply disruptions elsewhere reduce global inventories.
With copper prices holding around $US5.00/lb and demand underpinned by decarbonisation, BHP’s pivot toward the red metal looks increasingly strong. The company is now the world’s largest copper producer (~2Mtpa) and continues to prioritise brownfield expansions and Jansen’s long-term potash optionality.
Iron ore still remains the backbone of earnings — contributing nearly 60% of BHP’s underlying EBITDA. While shipments were slightly lower YoY due to scheduled maintenance at Port Hedland, WA Iron Ore mined record material. The company maintained FY26 guidance at 258–269Mt, reflecting strong system performance. However, the standoff with China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG) — instructing steel mills not to buy BHP ore amid pricing disputes, is still playing out.
Iron ore prices have been resilient, holding above US$100/mt, despite weaker Chinese steel demand and oversupply concerns mounting. BHP’s longer-term target to lift output toward 305Mtpa remains intact,
The coal divisions were mixed: metallurgical coal output rose 8% while thermal coal fell 4%. BHP confirmed it will place Saraji South into care and maintenance due to the “unsustainable impact” of Queensland’s coal royalty regime — an implicit rebuke of state policy that continues to undermine investment confidence in the Bowen Basin.
The Jansen potash project in Canada continues to advance, with Stage 1 73% complete and production slated for 2027. Stage 2 is progressing (13% complete), although cost inflation and market softness have prompted management to reassess expansion timelines.
Overall, a solid update and one that supports our bullish view on the stock.
