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The ASX200 closed up +0.2% on Monday, cautiously nudging closer to the psychological 9000 level. With over 80% of the ASX200 still to report, there’s likely to be plenty of action on the stock level over the coming weeks. Today, in particular, should be a corker, with BHP, James Hardie, HUB24 Ltd, HMC Capital, Woodside, Seek, and CSL all reporting, many of which we own across our MM portfolios—it will be busy!
Again, we type “the local market registered and closed at a new all-time high.” It’s becoming repetitive through 2025, but for now, the bulls are very much in charge. In yesterday’s session, the banks performed the heavy lifting, with NAB rallying +2.7% following a good quarterly, ably supported by a +1.2 % advance by heavyweight CBA. With the “Big Four” trading around multi-year highs and interest rates set to fall towards 3% into 2026, arguably, the cornerstone of the market remains firm.
- From a short-term technical perspective, the ASX200 is bullish while it can hold above 8875.
Who would have imagined back in April that come August, the ASX200 would be up +9.8% year-to-date, with all 11 sectors trading higher, and the more defensive-natured consumer staples and healthcare names would bring up the rear. As we discussed in “Macro Monday”, so far 2025 has been a net risk-on year, which has delivered significant valuation expansion, taking the PE of the ASX200 to a 40% premium to its historical average. We are not “fighting the tape” at this stage, but we do believe investors are going to become more discerning and individual companies will need to deliver to continue their advance.
Overseas markets were mixed and relatively quiet overnight as the talks continue about the Russia-Ukraine war. In Europe, the EURO STOXX 50 slipped 0.3% while the UK FTSE closed +0.2% higher. In the US, the S&P 500 slipped less than 0.1% while the small-cap Russell 2000 Index advanced +0.35%.
- The SPI futures are calling the ASX200 to open down 0.3% this morning before the barrage of reports crosses the news wires.