Market Matters Q&A

Commodity Clock

Still on this commodity super cycle – the emperor with no clothes.
Someone described the cycle like a clock, with 6 o’clock being the bottom of the cycle and 12 o’clock being the peak, and suggesting that we are currently at about 7 o’clock. So, why are we screaming towards 5 o’clock?

David

GEAR – rising to the challenge.

The stock market’s long term trend is relentlessly rising, looking at any time frame larger than 1 year the ASX rises… given this, would we not all be best just to buy GEAR and forget everything else?
Why stock pick when you can get 250% leverage on a long term ever rising market?
I would love to see a chart that overlays the GEAR stock price against the longer term performance of a ‘typical’ (MM?) growth or other actively managed portfolio.

Alain

alain

Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META)

Hi gents
Have a question about your positive view on Meta.
Think late last week you expressed a view the stock was cheap.
However – when I read the most recent note from UBS (think you guys get their research) – I note there is very little EPS growth forecast over the next 3-4 years. Indeed I think EPS is forecast to go down a little bit over that period (FY30 below FY26). They also have a buy recommendation and state the shares offer good value – and their price target is based on paying 26x. Now if we look back over the past 5 years EPS doubled. And so did the share price. Fair enough. But looking forward – if EPS isnt growing – why should the share price – and why is 26x a reasonable multiple given the future appears dramatically softer than recent history?
Cheers

Matt

Energy One Ltd (ASX: EOL) and Smart Parking Ltd (ASX: SPZ)

Dear MM, thanks for all the great work. I was hoping to get your thoughts on EOL and SPZ. Both companies’ share prices have retreated. Is this just part of valuation concerns/AI disruption of the wider technology sector or specific to the companies. Would you consider current prices as reasonable entry points. Many thanks again, Mark

Mark

Cash and high yielding investments

Good morning Market matters,

Love your work – thanks.

Market Matters have covered cash and cash like investments on and off over the last year, but there hasn’t been (that I am aware of) a definitive piece that compares and rates all the different types of cash and high yielding investments. For example, at call bank deposits vs term deposits vs cash etf vs high yielding etf vs bond/bond etf vs yarra capital products etc. With the markets looking stretched and a possible bubble, my opinion is a portion of a portfolio in cash or similar would be advantageous. I would love your thoughts and a deep dive into the above.

Thanks,

Stu

stu

What doesn’t the market like about Centuria Capital Group (ASX: CNI) recent capital raising?

I generally don’t like buying stocks trending lower, but CNI look good value to me around $1.75. Am I missing something that the rest of the market is aware of? I would be happy to buy at these levels and top up if they fall further, but what are your thoughts on the stock as a longer term investment at these levels?
Chris G.

Hi MM,

After not looking at CNI for some time, I just noticed that it has traded significantly under the recent equity raise price.

What is the reason for this – a combination of macroeconomic and company-specific factors?

Do you consider it a strong buy at these levels, particularly given the cash injection from the equity raising and reduction in gearing levels?

As I have managed to slip this in before the midday cut-off, can you please answer this in this week’s Weekend Report if at all possible.

Thanks,

Darren

Chris

FDC Consolidated Holdings (ASX: FDC)

HI Team, Thanks for the daily podcasts and written reports. I realise I have missed the cut-off, but a quick one if you could fit it in. Just after your thoughts on the recently FDC IPO and listing yesterday. Many Thanks Jeremy

Jeremy

Amotiv Ltd (ASX: AOV)

Hi Market Matters
Can I have your view on AOV – Amotiv.
Is this a stock to hold for yield? I’ve read it has been mispriced by the market and has a grossed up yield of 10%. Would you consider this for the income portfolio? If so at what price would you enter?
regards
Debbie

Debbie

Maths or demand?

Okay, simple question,
I understand the maths when it comes to a strong US dollar and $USD-priced commodities in a global market. But when does demand trump the maths? (pardon the trump pun).

David

An update on Northern Star Resources (ASX: NST)

Hi,
I think you last commented on Northern Star was in early June, as Elliot became involved. I am wondering whether you have an undated view on the stock?

Michael