Indices: Australian ASX 200
The ASX200 failed to close above 9000 as it exited August but it still delivered a stellar monthly performance. With a volatile but positive reporting season in the rear-view mirror, the next catalyst for local stocks could well be the RBA, and they aren’t expected to ease by another 0.25% until November.
The ASX200 slipped 0.1% lower on Friday, but it still finished the week up +0.1%. As we’ve said a few times lately, it’s feeling a touch tired above 9000.
The ASX 200 advanced +0.2% on the penultimate trading day of August, taking its monthly gain to +2.7%. As we often say, there are “lies, more lies, and statistics,” and in this case, the average decline for August and September combined over the last decade before 2025 was around -3%.
The ASX200 finished up +0.3% on Wednesday after an initial dip into lunchtime, following hotter-than-expected inflation data, which cooled expectations for a September rate cut.
The ASX200 retreated 0.4% on Tuesday, struggling from the get-go after Wall Street’s weakness on Monday night. Almost 60% of the market retreated, with losses concentrated in the materials and utilities sectors, although both were only down around 1%.
The ASX200 breached 9000 for the first time last week and its set to do so again this morning after the huge session in the US following Jerome Powells dovish speech – if we follow the US today only some defensive names are likely to lag.
The ASX 200 surged over 100 points on Thursday to close above the 9000 level for the first time, who would have thought back in April? All 11 major sectors closed higher as the bulls got the bit between their teeth, and sellers were very stock-specific.
The ASX200 closed up +0.2% on Monday, cautiously nudging closer to the psychological 9000 level. With over 80% of the ASX200 still to report, there’s likely to be plenty of action on the stock level over the coming weeks.
We are now seven weeks into FY26, and global markets are trading at or near all-time highs. The ASX 200, including dividends, is up 4.7%, supported by a 13.7% rally in Resources and gains of more than 8% from Healthcare, Utilities, and Energy. In the US, the S&P 500 has risen 4.2% and the Nasdaq a more impressive 7.1%. Expectations of further rate cuts, combined with a resilient economic backdrop, are driving the move.
Two of the most widely held stocks in Australia, Commonwealth Bank (CBA) and Telstra (TLS), both confirmed this week that crowded/momentum trades can be problematic.
